The Democrats, in hindsight, fucked up with the economy and/or the messaging.

Did inflation happen because of the groundwork that Trump laid down in his term (not to mention global pandemic)? Sure

but did inflation get really bad under Biden? Yes, absolutely. That doesn't make it his fault, but it makes it a problem that the Democrats probably needed to address more aggressively, an all-out attack on rising cost of living.

At the start of the pandemic, for me to carry $100 of normal weekly groceries home from the supermarket was a real challenge, but I could do it. Now, I carry $100 no problem, with a toddler on my shoulders. The money doesn't really matter to me, but from what I've been reading, it really mattered to a lot of voters. Again: I think his will be worse under Trump (if it does get better, it'll be due to some shady tax rebates to supermarkets or big ag or something, IMHO).

So while the Dems are talking about first time home credits and whatnot, Vance is out there lying about the price of eggs

but it's a lie that "feels" right to a lot of people, and anecdotally, has some truth to it in that inflation/cost of living increase is real. Nevermind that the R policy is...what, exactly? But they say they'll fix it, and they point out that Dems are currently in power, and that's enough for a lot of people.