It's really opaque. We won't know the environmental impact right away. Part of the larger problem is, while folks like you and I make a sizable impact, it's nothing compared to enterprise usage at scale. Every website, app, and operating system with an AI button makes it even easier for users to interface with AI leading to more queries. Not only that, those queries and responses are collected and used to further make queries.

Should the usage of AI stay stable, improved hardware would decrease carbon output. We should be cautious coming to that conclusion. What is more likely is that increased efficiency will lead to increased usage. Perhaps at an accelerated rate with the anticipation of even more technological breakthroughs down the line.

All that said, I'm really not a doomer. It's important we all consider the cost of our choices. The way I see it, we are all going to die eventually. I'm old enough it will probably be from something else.