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this post was submitted on 12 Nov 2024
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I've seen a few graphs in my day, and they generally don't do that. Sure, it could happen, but it almost certainly won't. :(
That said, the US and China both making steady progress is very good, but then again, a Trump presidency certainly might see some of that reverse.
I think the big questions is: how do we get Russia and India to curb their emissions? If India follows China's per capita curve, but with a 20 year delay, it'll be disastrous. They're going to need significant help to continue industrializing without seeing a huge rise in emissions.
I don't think I'd have seen this coming even 5 years ago, but China really might be positioned to be a global climate leader.