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this post was submitted on 22 Nov 2024
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Ukraine hit Russia in parts of Russia they couldn't hit before with U.S.- and UK-supplied missiles that may have required NATO personnel to aim and/or fire. That's an escalation -- hasn't been done before, brings NATO countries more directly into the war.
Russia hit parts of Ukraine they could already hit, but with a much more advanced type of missile that can carry a nuclear payload. That's not an escalation -- Russia could already strike there! -- but it is a reminder about what further escalation could bring.
"May" is the wrong word here. The word you're looking for is definitely. The Ukrainians themselves have admitted as much on their Telegram channels from what i've seen. They complain that they have to wait too long for US to authorize the next strikes because the only way that they can employ these missiles is with NATO satellites providing all of the targeting and guidance in live time. That means that Ukraine is doing nothing but pressing the button, everything else is done by NATO. The Russians also said this would be the case in advance and they are 100% right when they say the use of these missiles now is a direct attack on them by NATO. Even the pretense of a proxy has essentially been dropped and both sides know it, it's only the western media that is still trying to gaslight the world.
Ukrainians pushing the button is still a proxy, and the legal/political doctrines are still ambiguous because of it
Now we're entering semantics territory.
Unfortunately semantics are part of this whole international system problem