Edit First vote is in! Dixville Notch, New Hampshire!

Tie Vote 3-3!

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/05/politics/dixville-notch-new-hampshire-2024-results/index.html

"Dixville Notch voters have supported the Democratic nominee the last two presidential elections, with the township in 2020 unanimously casting five votes for President Joe Biden and with Hillary Clinton in 2016 winning four of seven votes — two went to Trump and one to Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson."

This thread is for the Presidential election, my plan is to start marking wins as soon as they are called, sorted by time zone.

Some states are going to take longer than others. Polls generally close at 8 PM local time, but they can't start counting early/mail in votes until after the polls close.

Wisconsin in particular has an interesting system where ballots are collected by MUNICIPALITY, not precinct, they have over 1,800 ballot counting locations and don't report until ALL 1,800 are in.

https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2024/10/22/wisconsin-voters-election-milwaukee-security-denier

Currently 232 EC votes from Blue States:

4+19+10+7+3+3+4+10+11 +4+14+28+4+3+13+54+12 +10+5+8+6

93 EC votes from Battleground States:

10+16+15+16+19+11+6

Which leaves 213 EC votes in Red States.

9+6+6+6+8+6+10+5+3+7 +3+40+30+11+8+17+9+11 +4+3+4+4+3

270 to Win.

Online map here!

https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/

This thread is for discussion on state races and ballot measures. Is your state legalizing or banning abortion? Weed? Ranked choice balloting?

This is the place to discuss it!

I'm not even going to TRY to list out all 435 House Races, but let's keep the discussion on that here.

Particularly notable will be any flips from D to R or R to D.

Currently, the makeup of the House is:

https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown

220 Republicans
212 Democrats
3 Vacancies

Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI) resigned effective 04/25/2024.

Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX) died 07/19/2024.

Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-NJ) died 08/21/2024.

If the Republicans lose just 5 seats, control will flip from them, back to the Democrats with a majority of 217 to 215. Not even counting the three vacancies.

I wanted to keep the discussion on the House and Senate races separate. The Presidential thread will be busy enough!

I'm not crazy enough to parse 435 House seats, but I did do the Senate races:

https://www.270towin.com/2024-senate-election/

"There are 34 seats up in 2024 - including a special election in Nebraska - of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents."

AZ - Kyrsten Sinema - I - Not Running
Ruben Gallego - D - Seems likely to win. Lake is nuts.
Kari Lake - R

This wouldn't flip the seat as Sinema caucuses with the Democrats.

FL - Rick Scott - R
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell - D.
Rick Scott - Safe R.

Former RNC head Michael Steele says this is one to watch, Scott may be on the chopping block. Polling doesn't show that and with Trump having home state advantage, I don't see a split ticket there.

MD - Ben Cardin - D - Not Running
Angela Alsobrooks - Safe D.
Larry Hogan - R

MI - Debbie Stabenow - D - Not Running
Elissa Slotkin - Safe D.
Mike Rogers - R

MT - Jon Tester - D
Jon Tester - D
Tim Sheehy - R - Ahead in polling.

Likely flip D to R, despite the fact that Tester is well liked in MT. Polling is giving Sheehy the edge.

NV - Jacky Rosen - D
Jacky Rosen - Safe D.
Sam Brown - R

OH - Sherrod Brown - D
Sherrod Brown - D.
Bernie Moreno - R

Tossup. Brown leads in 4/5 polls, but it's a margin of error lead. Moreno is up in the most recent polling.

PA - Bob Casey - D
Bob Casey - Safe D.
David McCormick - R

TX - Ted Cruz - R
Colin Allred - D
Ted Cruz - Safe R.

Allred is up in only one poll, if the Cancun thing didn't sink Cruz, nothing will. Texas is gonna Texas.

WI - Tammy Baldwin - D
Tammy Baldwin - Safe D.
Eric Hovde - R

WV - Joe Manchin - I - Not Running
Glenn Elliott - D
Jim Justice - Safe R.

The following races are rated as safe for the incumbent party.

CA - Laphonza Butler - D - Not Running
Adam Schiff - Safe D.
Steve Garvey - R.

CT - Chris Murphy - D
Chris Murphy - Safe D.
Matt Corey - R.

DE - Tom Carper - D - Not Running
Lisa Blunt Rochester - Safe D.
Eric Hansen - R.

HI Mazie Hirono - D
Mazie Hirono - Safest D that ever D'd.
Bob McDermott - R

IN - Mike Braun - R - Running for Gov.
Valerie McCray - D.
Jim Banks - Safe R.

MA - Elizabeth Warren - D
Elizabeth Warren - Safe D.
John Deaton - R.

ME - Angus King - I
David Costello - D.
Demi Kouzounas - R.
Angus King - Safe I, Caucuses with D's.

MN - Amy Klobuchar - D
Amy Klobuchar - Safe D.
Royce White - R.

MO - Josh Hawley - R
Lucas Kunce - D.
Josh Hawley - Safe R.

MS - Roger Wicker - R
Ty Pinkins - D
Roger Wicker - Safe R.

ND - Kevin Cramer - R
Katrina Christiansen - D.
Kevin Cramer - Safe R.

NE - Deb Fischer - R
Deb Fischer - Safe R.
Dan Osborn - I

Osborn is making this a nail biter, but I don't see a steady red state going I.

NE - Pete Ricketts - R
Preston Love - D.
Pete Ricketts - Safe R.

NJ - George Helmy - D - Not Running, replaced Menendez.
Andy Kim - Safe D.
Curtis Bashaw - R.

NM - Martin Heinrich - D
Martin Heinrich - Safe D.
Nella Domenici - R.

NY - Kirsten Gillibrand - D
Kirsten Gillibrand - Safe D.
Mike Sapraicone - R.

RI - Sheldon Whitehouse - D
Sheldon Whitehouse - Safe D.
Patricia Morgan - R.

TN - Marsha Blackburn - R
Gloria Johnson - D.
Marsha Blackburn - Safe R.

UT - Mitt Romney - R - Not Running
Caroline Gleich - D.
John Curtis - Safe R.

VA - Tim Kaine - D
Tim Kaine - Safe D.
Hung Cao - R.

VT - Bernie Sanders - I
Bernie Sanders - Safe I.
Gerald Malloy - R.

WA - Maria Cantwell - D
Maria Cantwell - Safe D.
Raul Garcia

WY - John Barrasso - R
Scott Morrow - D.
John Barrasso - Safe R.

So...

Ind. -> D +1 (Sinema, no real change)
D -> R +1 (Montana)
Ind. -> R +1 (Manchin)
Tossup - OH

Ohio and Montana are going to be the races to watch. Right now, the Senate is split 49 Republicans, 47 Democrats, 4 Independents Caucusing with Democrats (Sinema, Manchin, King, and Sanders).

As VP, Harris casts the tie breaking vote which gives the Democrats the majority in the Senate, Committee controls, etc. etc. etc.

So if Montana flips. 50 R, 46 D + 4 I = 50. VP is the tie breaker.

WV flips with Manchin's seat going R. 51 R, 46 D + 3 I = 49. Democrats are out of the majority.

AZ flips with Sinema's seat going D. 51 R, 47 D + 2 I = 49. Doesn't change the math as Sinema caucused with the Democrats.

OH being the tossup, could be 52 R vs. 46 D + 2 I = 48. OTOH - Could be 51 R vs. 47 D + 2 I = 49. That would be a hold as that seat is currently D.

NE is a wildcard if it flips from R to I. 51 R vs. 46 D + 3 I = 49.

However you slice it though, it looks like Democrats will lose the majority in the Senate.

Sorry to throw this on everyone in the group, but there has been another mod shakeup and it feels fair to address it publicly.

MightBe has been removed as mod from both Politics and World News.

I also unpinned and removed their rule change posts.

The too long; didn't read is they were pretty hostile in messages to both myself and little cow, and when asked to join back channel discussions in chat, refused, and instead made unilateral decisions without group discussion.

Moderating a group like this needs to be a collaborative experience, no single voice should be establishing rules without some form of common agreement.

They not only refused to engage in that collaboration, but did so in a manner not fitting for being the new person on the team.

And it is a team. I tend to make more public posts than the others, because I value transparency over privacy, but when I do so, it's a result of a nice private chat among the group.

For now, their rule changes have been removed from both Politics and World News. Back to the stated way of doing business:

Politics is for US Politics - Somehow I doubt that's going to be an issue in 2024.

World News is for all News OUTSIDE the United States, that's what the normal "News" is for.

There ARE things the mod team is discussing, and any rule changes will be made as a group effort, and (hopefully!) for the better health of the group and ALL of our participants!

Happy New Year!

Ohioans vote Tuesday on a measure that would make it harder to pass future changes to the state constitution. Ideastream's Karen Kasler explains the possible implications for abortion access in Ohio.

Sources:

NPR: A look ahead at the Ohio special election

Five Thirty Eight: Everything You Need To Know About The Ohio Ballot Measure That Could Block Abortion Rights

CNN: Ohio special election becomes proxy for abortion rights fight

PBS News Hour: Ohio voters to decide on constitutional change before determining abortion rights

The Guardian: Republicans pushed a special election in Ohio – what does it mean for abortion rights?

Slate: The Cardboard-Box Billionaires Are at It Again, This Time in Ohio The Uihleins have put millions of dollars toward preventing a vote on abortion in the state.