So I guess the most plausible explanation is this is an info op to make the focus Ukraine’s incompetence rather than the reality of Russia losing yet another costly airframe cause they’re schmos
I don't even get how the op is supposed to work. Ukraine shooting down an unannounced military plane approaching the war is the right thing to do. Even if everything Russia said was true, it's not like Ukraine should just stop shooting down enemy aircraft because sometimes they might be carrying POWs rather than munitions. It would be unfortunate for the POWs if it were true, but if I were Ukrainian I wouldn't question the military's choice at all.
Russian officials recently claimed that they gave Ukraine advanced notice of it flying over, but same as everything else their counter intel people can come up with, they don't even have plausible evidence, they're just throwing up a he said / she said between one side that's been exaggerating some claims and one side that is outright lying and gaslighting the world on a daily basis.
I don’t even get how the op is supposed to work.
The only way I could see this as a success for Russia is if it was a counterintelligence operation to expose a mole in their organization. Depending on how high value the mole is/was it might be worth trading an IL-76 for. Keep in mind, I don't think that is what happened here. Russia is making too many dumb mistakes for this to be any kind of coordinated plan on their part.
It is much MUCH more likely that Ukraine got smarter with their resources and/or took a risk about locating a functional AA missile battery close enough to the Russian border to make this happen. We saw it with the A50 shot down over the Sea of Azov a week or so ago. Russia getting lazy and losing rare and valuable aircraft is getting much more common.
Ukraine shot down 4 aircraft in a day last year in that region although Russia counter claimed it was all friendly fire...
Relax, comrade! Russia army is SO strong, your only worry is friendly fire! I've seen FROGS fight better than Ukrainian army. And they were DEAD!
russian telegram channels claimed shootdown of an "ukrainian drone" earlier the same day, so il-76 could be genuine friendly fire. there's intercepted radio chatter supporting this https://nitter.oksocial.net/olga_pp98/status/1750089351801815354#m
And/or give them cause to not turn over the POW's since they are already 'dead'. Hopefully more details will emerge that paint a better picture. No matter the case though, if the POW's are still alive, then this certainly seals their fate anyway as Russia isn't going to turn around and hand them over after all this.
I think the most likely scenario is that russian soldier executed the POWs well before the crash, and are just saying they died in the crash to cover up their war crimes.
Too much hassle for them. They can in practice kill POWs with impunity and just disappear them, and probably already have done so in the past.
This seems more like them attempting to cover up yet another fuck up of theirs, and using the "no you!" retort (as in "we didn't lose 75 men, you did!") is one of Putin's favourite in those kinds of situations, because it serves as an attack as well as covering up something that would make them lose face.
And now with the added "bonus" for Putin that he can kill 75 Ukrainian POWs as a revenge for the attack, and just claim they were on the plane.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
But the latest comments indicate Kyiv’s growing confidence that the IL-76 plane, which crashed Wednesday morning in the village of Yablonovo in Russia’s Belgorod region, may not have been carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war ahead of an exchange, as Moscow claimed.
“A set of investigative actions is being carried out to identify persons from among the armed formations of Ukraine involved in committing this terrorist act,” the committee added in a Telegram post.
The Russian Investigative Committee also released new video from the crash site, which shows the charred earth and remnants of the plane, but no human remains appear to be visible in the footage.
Yusov’s comments, which cast doubt on the account given by Moscow, echo similar remarks made overnight into Thursday by Mykola Oleschuk, commander of the Ukrainian air force.
The government communications body also urged for an international investigation into the incident, saying “there is no evidence that any Ukrainian citizens were killed on board” and that “Russian official statements cannot be trusted.”
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Thursday it is too soon to talk about instructions from Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding the military plane crash as an investigation is still underway.
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