My bad, the link I sent was not about NativeAOT, just bundling all the dependencies together (also, it's 4 years old). After a quick search, here's a recent SO question that mentions that you can build .exe files
As for the filesize... please recheck the post under which we are commenting. :D
Does it effectively output a single binary?
Yes, that's one of the points of NativeAOT, a self-contained single binary, exactly as Go does it.
Does it create some kind of clusterf*k and awkward packaging formats like other MS solutions such as UWP?
No, you can create .exe files.
Will it actually be deployable to a random fresh install of Debian 12 or Windows 10?
Yes, NativeAOT supports Windows, Linux and MacOS, x64 and Arm64.
What about compatibility with older systems?
Not sure about that, I suppose it depends on the targets each .NET version support. For example, .NET 8 will drop RHEL 7 and only RHEL 8 and later.
And to play devil's advocate: this won't work for all existing .NET applications. If you use reflection (which is AOT unfriendly), chances are that you will have to rework a ton of stuff in order to get to a point where NativeAOT works. There's a middle solution though, called ReadyToRun, which has some advantages compared to running fully with the JIT compiler.
LEAVE AS IT IS: Two separate communities, no merging
I have started using Avalonia, and even though I am still learning, I am very satisfied with it. There are growing pains obviously, but as you said, I have no confidence in Microsoft UI frameworks.