If he keeps doing well, who do you think he’ll replace?
I think the consensus is generally that he would replace Ricciardo because Ricciardo would replace Checo. There's really no reason Daniel wouldn't be fast tracked into the Red Bull seat unless he truly has lost his speed and his F1 career comes to an end.
Whatever it is that Red Bull saw during his testing and sim time, they seem to believe that the Daniel Ricciardo of old will make a rapid return. If they don't see that then they probably still replace Checo, but the replacement conversation becomes more complicated.
It would seem a cruel double standard if they were to give a returning driver who had lost his form chance after chance to show he's still worthy of the works team when historically they haven't given their own young drivers that opportunity.
I think the consensus is generally that he would replace Ricciardo because Ricciardo would replace Checo. There’s really no reason Daniel wouldn’t be fast tracked into the Red Bull seat unless he truly has lost his speed and his F1 career comes to an end.
There is currently really no reason why Daniel Ricciardo should get a race seat at all. As a personality I really like him but he has shown nearly nothing pace-wise. His current injury is also self-inflicted and should therefore be counted on the minus list because he overlooked yellow flags and didn't brake early enough because of that (and didn't take his hands off the steering wheel).
I don't know what to think about Lawson as a character: to me he comes off as a bit arrogant but from what I've heard from the media the feedback about him in the paddock is that of a soberly focused guy. Obviously he doesn't hold a candle in charisma but that should not be what a team should primarily look in a racing driver.
PS: Reminder which two guys were team mates in 2021 in DTM
There is currently really no reason why Daniel Ricciardo should get a race seat at all.
There is and it should be obvious to everyone. Red Bull want him there. They marketed his "homecoming" while they evaluated him privately and as soon as they felt he was a better choice than Nyck de Vries and their juniors they put him in the car.
They probably had the contract for next year worked up before Liam stepped in, so the logical choice was to keep everything going as planned with Daniel in the car. They'll still get to monitor his performance, which they're clearly keen on doing, and Liam will continue to wait as the next logical seat filler after Daniel like he was already doing. At that point my assumption would be Ricciardo back to Red Bull or out of Alpha Tauri/retired from F1 by the end of next season.
I'm not trying to argue that any of this is the right thing to do, just that it seems to be how Red Bull has chosen to handle the situation.
There is and it should be obvious to everyone.
Not to me, not based on his race performance at McLaren and then at AT before crashing (again: the crash and the resulting injury are his fault).
Liam will continue to wait
That's how they lost Sainz and Albon...
I’m not trying to argue that any of this is the right thing to do
You argued that "it should be obvious to everyone" why Ricciardo deserves a race seat in F1 and he just doesn't. He had two seasons at McLaren, including one whole car reset with the 2022 rules. In 2021 he had one very good race but Nyck De Vries also had one very good race.
There is the unlikely but not completely outlandish chance that Lawson will overtake Tsunoda in championship points in the next race weekend. Tsunoda has 3, Lawson has 2.
The only seat still available next year is Sargent, but Williams seem committed to him. Probably looking like another year in Super Formula for Lawson.
Or a fractional year, if anyone in the RBR family of drivers isn't performing and gets replaced mid season
With Tsunoda also committed to AT I don't think Lawson has much hope of getting a seat for the next year or two.
The only chance he has at getting an AT seat is if Ricciardo or Tsunoda move up to RB. At this point he's probably got even odds of back-filling Checo's replacement (if it happens) or moving to a non-RB team like Williams.
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