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submitted 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) by SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net to c/news@hexbear.net

A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of a Russian missile impacting Ukraine.


As we rapidly approach the fourth anniversary of the beginning of the Ukraine War (an anniversary I absolutely did not expect would occur while the two sides were still in combat), we have seen Russia turn to a new strategy, starting late last year but intensifying in December and now January.

Russia seems intent to disconnect Ukrainian cities from the electrical grid by focussing bombing on thermal, gas, and hydro stations, causing major power blackouts across the country. Russia is also bombing substations relatively close to Ukraine's three nuclear power plants (Zaporzhye, the fourth, remains under Russia control), studiously avoiding hitting the premises of the NPPs themselves for obvious reasons. Even if they're far away from the NPPs, striking the substations does have risks, because if the nuclear reactors aren't shut off before the substations are bombed, there is a possibility that there will be insufficient backup power to prevent a meltdown - hence why Russia hasn't really attempted to do this for four years.

Most of the electricity generated in Ukraine comes from the nuclear power plants, both because of the infrastructure they had initially (Ukraine was 7th in the world in nuclear electricity generation before the war) and because Russia has bombed most non-nuclear power stations and substations already. Over the last couple weeks, we have seen Ukrainian media fly into a frenzy about long-lasting blackouts, especially in the middle of winter. After the Zionist entity destroyed virtually all civilian infrastructure in Gaza while the West cheered on, they now appear to have changed their mind on whether such strikes are an effective and humanitarian option to subject millions of people to.

Regardless of whether you personally believe these Russian strikes are justified (I'm pretty iffy myself), it must be stressed that Ukraine has been bombing Russian tankers and oil refineries and power stations for a long time now, so in a sense, this is a retaliation. It's also remarkable, compared to Western wars, that Ukraine was even still allowed to possess a functioning electrical grid for nearly four years into a war of this magnitude. That all being said, while Ukrainian strikes have been somewhat but not overly impactful on the Russian oil sector, the response is clearly very asymmetrical: Ukraine's power grid is, according to Ukrainian energy corporations, now 70% degraded and is virtually impossible to now repair, and blackouts can last most of the day.

For everybody's sake, I hope a ceasefire and peace deal will be reached soon. But after four years of seeing opportunities for an end to this war squandered over and over, I'm not holding my breath.


Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 56 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

in our next episode of "Western militaries/MIC just saying shit" https://archive.ph/sjHJB

Germany Orders 5,000 Boxers for €40B: ARTEC Targets 1,000/Year Production as 7 Countries Operate 2,100+ Vehicles

ARTEC company has already delivered and has orders totaling over 2,100 GTK Boxer armored vehicles and plans to produce thousand per year altogether

yeah, so this vehicle for which we have a yearly production rate of (maybe) 200, for which we have produced a little over 2K (and I think that number's counting vehicles which still haven't come off the assembly line, it's total orders, some of which haven't been fulfilled yet) over the course of sixteen years? we'll make a bajilion of 'em, don't worry. we'll even do it in a country with rising energy costs and a contracting manufacturing sector!

more

ARTEC consortium, which is a joint venture of KNDS Germany and Rheinmetall, announced plans to increase annual production of heavy wheeled GTK Boxer armored vehicles. And they plan to reach such a milestone in 2030. Janes noticed this at the Defence iQ International Armoured Vehicles (IAV) 2026 conference in Farnborough, Great Britain. At the same time, improvement of the basic chassis, or drive module, which is common to all Boxer-based vehicles, is being carried out. Currently, ARTEC already has five plants in Europe alone and is constantly expanding supply chains by adding new sources. At the same time, if necessary, the company is ready to deploy additional armored vehicle assembly capacities. In total, currently over 2,100 Boxer family vehicles in 28 modifications for 7 countries have been delivered and are being manufactured. At the same time, the drive module is compatible between all operators and can be changed within 40 minutes. If we look at previous figures in more detail, it turns out to be 837 armored vehicles in 8 versions for Germany, 629 in 5 variants for Great Britain, 272 units in 5 modifications for the Netherlands, 211 in 8 versions for Australia, 118 in 5 variants for Lithuania and 22 of two types for Qatar. Of course, there is also room for Ukraine here, with over 50 vehicles in two variants.

Defense Express notes that according to previously known information, Ukrainian military should receive 54 RCH 155 SPGs and 9 AiTO30 command vehicles. That is, together it turns out to be 63 units of Boxer-based armored vehicles, whose delivery status remains unknown for now. Regarding production increase plans, this is a very logical response, considering massive defense procurement by many countries. Germany alone plans to purchase up to 5,000 Boxers or vehicles based on them, which will cost approximately €40 billion. Also, other countries will join the list of operators, such as Portugal, which plans to take 90 units. Well, and one shouldn't forget that additional mass production allows somewhat reducing the quite considerable price of Boxer.

The US, btw, has produced a little under 5k of the Stryker, a much cheaper and less sophisticated 8x8 APC (although it gets a lot pricier in its modern IFV variants, but so does the Boxer, and most Boxers seem to be the basic APC variant or other mostly unarmed configurations anyway, which ought to be on the cheaper end). But yeah, the Germans are going to get 5k of these and the manufacturer's going to be pumping out 1k yearly, for... which clients exactly, given that up until now the averaged out yearly sales have been like 130?

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[-] FuckyWucky@hexbear.net 56 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Very funny how Trump Accounts thing is just a way for the Government to prop up the stock market.

The funds in Trump Accounts must be invested in certain mutual funds or exchange-traded funds that track the S&P 500 or another index of primarily American equities.

https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/treasury-irs-issue-guidance-on-trump-accounts-established-under-the-working-families-tax-cuts-notice-announces-upcoming-regulations

So you can't even set it to buy some Treasury etf as a "fuck you" to the Government for forcefully buying equities on your behalf.

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An Iraqi resistance movement released impressive footage from one of their underground missile bases:

https://s1.cdnstatic.space/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/awala.mp4

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[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 56 points 3 months ago

U.S. Considers Full Withdrawal of Troops From Syria - Telesur English

Article

About 1,000 troops are currently deployed in Syria, most stationed at facilities in the country’s northeast.

On Thursday, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that the White House is weighing a full withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria as Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa moves to assert control over the country’s northeast, a region previously held by a U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led militia.

About 1,000 troops are currently deployed in Syria, most stationed at facilities in the northeast alongside the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the Pentagon’s longtime partner against the Islamic State (IS) in the region, said the WSJ report, citing U.S. officials.

A rapid government offensive over the weekend led to the collapse of SDF control in parts of the northeast, with Damascus pressing the group to disband. The SDF has been responsible for guarding roughly 9,000 IS detainees held in detention facilities across the region.

On Wednesday, U.S. Central Command said that the Pentagon has begun transferring up to 7,000 IS detainees from northeastern Syria to “secure detention facilities” in Iraq.

U.S. forces were first deployed to Syria in 2014 under then-President Barack Obama to combat IS amid the country’s civil war, later operating closely with the SDF.

From 2017 to 2021, during President Donald Trump’s first term, U.S. troop levels in Syria were gradually reduced from about 2,000.

Although IS has lost most of its territorial control in Syria and Iraq, an estimated 1,500 to 3,000 IS fighters remained active in the two countries by mid-2025, said Adrian Shtuni, an associate fellow at the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism, warning that the extremist group continues to pose regional and global threats.

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[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 56 points 3 months ago

Milei Aims to Hand Over Malvinas and Patagonia to Foreign Control - Telesur English

Article

The far-right President’s comments and actions undermine Argentina’s sovereignty. On Wednesday, the Malvinas Islands Ex-Combatants Center (CECIM) filed a criminal complaint against Argentine President Javier Milei, accusing him of breach of public duty.

Earlier, in statements to the British newspaper The Telegraph, the far-right politician said the Malvinas should be “returned through negotiation and when the islanders so desire.”

CECIM argues that the president’s remarks amount to an abandonment of Argentina’s sovereignty by conditioning the return of the archipelago on the will of a population that the United Nations recognizes as implanted. The complaint warns that Milei is violating the First Transitional Provision of the Argentine Constitution, which establishes the recovery of the islands as a “permanent and inalienable objective.”

The controversy centers on the distinction between interests and desires. On one hand, the United Nations and the Argentine Constitution require respect for the interests and way of life of the islanders, guaranteeing their rights following restitution.

By referring to their “desires,” however, Milei introduces the concept of self-determination, tacitly accepting the British position and weakening Argentina’s historical argument based on territorial integrity. Legal experts warn that such statements could cause irreversible damage under international law through the Estoppel Doctrine, which holds that a head of state’s statements can be legally binding.

If not corrected, the United Kingdom could argue that Argentina has consented to a change in its longstanding position, thereby consolidating its control over 1.62 million square kilometers of sea, fishing grounds, and oil resources, which British companies are currently exploiting illegally.

CECIM warns that, for the first time in 193 years, it is an Argentine president who is legitimizing the British occupation, dismantling the oldest state policy of the republic.

The text reads, “Under cover of darkness, the forces seized the Ushuaia port to hand it over to Zionism. Argentina is being invaded by the U.S. The level of treason against the nation is such that it is being carried out by our own forces. There will be not a shred of mercy for the traitors.”

On Friday, outlet Pagina 12 reported that Milei ordered a federal intervention in the port of Ushuaia, a strategic location as it is considered the “gateway” to Antarctica and the Malvinas Islands, citing operational and security risks linked to deteriorating infrastructure, administrative irregularities, and alleged misuse of funds.

The government of Tierra del Fuego province warned that his decision amounts to a covert handover of the facilities to Washington, an action that aligns with U.S. President Donald Trump’s continental geopolitical ambitions.

“The reasons and intentions of the national government for moving forward with this intervention are unknown. Concerning narratives are being promoted regarding geopolitical or economic intentions — not made explicit — that go beyond the reality of the port and appear to be behind a measure of this magnitude,” Tierra del Fuego authorities stated.

“Everything Trump is thinking about points to this region. We have to be realistic about what is happening in the world. The military risk — that is, the possibility that the Tierra del Fuego province could appear on the map as a highly conflict-prone zone — is real,” said Andres Dachary, the province’s secretary for the Malvinas Islands, Antarctica, South Atlantic Islands and International Affairs.

“Milei took the administration of the Ushuaia Port away from the province. Today he is offering the United States control of the port in exchange for being part of a ‘Peace Board’ that Trump invented. They are handing over Argentine territory without even trying to hide it,” citizen Mati Aromi wrote on social media, referring to promises the Argentine far-right politician made to Washington in Davos.

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[-] SexUnderSocialism@hexbear.net 55 points 3 months ago

The Communist Party of China and the Chinese Kuomintang will jointly host a think tank forum in Beijing on February 3, the spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council announced on Wednesday.

https://xcancel.com/CGTNOfficial/status/2016647475151483267

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[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 55 points 3 months ago

Trump Withdraws Invitation to Canada to Join Board of Peace - Telesur English

Article

Previously, PM Carney rejected Trump’s claim that Canada relies on the U.S. for its existence. On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump said the Board of Peace he proposed is withdrawing its invitation to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney for Canada to join the body.

"Dear Prime Minister Carney: Please let this Letter serve to represent that the Board of Peace is withdrawing its invitation to you regarding Canada’s joining”, Trump wrote in a post on his social media platform Truth Social, with no explanations.

The move followed public exchanges between the two leaders earlier in the week. Earlier on Thursday, Carney rejected Trump’s claim that Canada relies on the United States for its existence after returning from the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, without meeting with the U.S. president.

“Canada and the United States have built a remarkable partnership. In the economy, in security and in rich cultural exchange,” Carney said in Quebec City. “But Canada doesn’t live because of the United States. Canada thrives because we are Canadian.”

At Davos, Carney warned of a “rupture” in the global order, voicing support for Greenland and Denmark and criticizing the use of tariffs and economic pressure by major powers. Trump, speaking at the forum, said, “Canada lives because of the United States.”

Since returning to the White House, Trump has intensified trade and political frictions with Canada, imposing broad tariffs and repeatedly suggesting that Canada become the 51st U.S. state.

As of Thursday, the following countries have agreed to participate in Trump’s Board of Peace: Bahrain, Morocco, Argentina, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Bulgaria, Egypt, Hungary, Indonesia, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Mongolia, Pakistan, Paraguay, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, and Uzbekistan.

Meanwhile, these countries have declined invitations to join the U.S. initiative: Denmark, France, Norway, Slovenia, and Sweden.

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[-] ziggurter@hexbear.net 54 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

Hasan Piker got banned (for 7 days) from Twitch for comparing ICE to the IOF (and using the term "rabid ultra-zionist pigs" in the process). So he's been live streaming on YouTube for a couple days.

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[-] Metabola@hexbear.net 54 points 3 months ago
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[-] OttoboyEmpire@hexbear.net 54 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

Epstein interview w/Bannon surfaced.

Jumping around and finding it an illuminating portrait of the former -- his interest in (or at least Bannon's framing of) the quantifiable and the unquantifiable, finance and relationships, the intersection of which made him, along with tons of ambition/zero scruples, one of the most powerful men in the world. ~~But there seems to be skepticism RE authenticity with many comments asserting video is an AI/deepfake. What's the bulletins take? I guess there are artifacts or w/e but these don't seem dispositive to me and the script itself is p. compelling.~~ Drop Site reposted.

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[-] Parzivus@hexbear.net 53 points 2 months ago

Indian Ministry of External Affairs issues statement on Epstein files
Appears to be referring to an email where a "Jabor Y" refers to Modi visiting Israel to appease the US.

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[-] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 53 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Very quick update on the transfer of US air defence systems from the continental USA to the Middle East in the US military buildup against Iran.

The very same C-17 Globemaster III transport/airlift aircraft (hex: AE07FE) that left Fort Bliss, Texas yesterday for Portsmouth International Airport in New Hampshire, USA, is currently now at Ramstein Air Base in Germany. So this is additional confirmation that equipment from Fort Bliss is now also being moved to the Middle East, in addition to equipment from Fort Hood. Likely air defence assets. I don't see anyone else posting about this anywhere, so I think it's worth mentioning. Fort Bliss is home to 4x PATRIOT battalions (1x is a headquarters battalion), 3x THAAD batteries and an IBCS command unit.

I haven't seen anything move from Fort Sill, Oklahoma yet, another major air defence artillery base. Worth keeping an eye on that.

Likely air defence assets are still being flown out of Fort Hood at this very minute, so I don't think all defences are in place yet, unless this is some big bluff and the US military is just flying out stuff for no reason (quite unlikely but always possible). A single PATRIOT battery usually takes 9-10x C-17s to move. A battalion (usually 6x PATRIOT batteries), usually takes between 60-70+ C-17 flights, with all the supporting equipment.

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[-] Metabola@hexbear.net 53 points 3 months ago
[-] oliveoil@hexbear.net 53 points 3 months ago

Not sure if this counts as news. But I've noticed something really interesting.

When accessing Google Maps over Tor, my default focus is over Tehran - Iran. This is despite the end node being in Europe.

Google Maps focuses on Iran

Is Tor leaking something relating to their operations?

I don't know how long this has been going on, but my mind can't help but link it with the military build up we've seen thus far.

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[-] ClathrateG@hexbear.net 53 points 3 months ago

Trump Hangs Putin Portrait in White House Palm Room Above Granddaughter’s Photo, Sparking Global Outrage

https://dailyglitch.com/trump-hangs-putin-portrait-in-white-house-palm-room-above-granddaughters-photo-sparking-global-outrage/

Lol

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[-] thethirdgracchi@hexbear.net 52 points 3 months ago

This is the Spectator (cognitohazard warning) so take it with a giant grain of salt, but:

According to unconfirmed reports, General Zhang Youxia, China’s vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), sent a company of troops (over a hundred or more) to the government’s Yingxi Hotel in western Beijing on January 18. Their mission was to arrest Xi Jinping. A few hours before, the Chinese president – alerted by an informant – set in motion countermeasures. Troops under the command of Cao Qi, head of Xi’s Central Guards Bureau, ambushed Zhang’s soldiers. In the ensuing gunfight at Yangxi Hotel, nine guards were reportedly killed along with dozens of Zhang Youxia’s soldiers. Throughout China, military movements have been banned and troops and officers have been confined to barracks. This is the bloodiest of a blizzard of rumors that have swept the internet over the weekend. If true, this is the most dramatic military scandal since the death of Mao Zedong’s army chief Lin Biao in 1972.

This reads as fanfiction to me, but there is clearly something going on with Xi's purging of the PLA's high command. Still way too early to know what (if anything) this means, or why this was done, but the rumour mill is certainly churning. That said, I was in Shanghai for the last two weeks and the vibes were totally normal. All this activity though right on the eve of the supposed 2027 date espoused by US intelligence as the cut off point for a favorable outcome for the United States in a war around Taiwan (analysis with imo is far too optimistic for the Americans, that date should've probably been something like 2020 at best) is rather... interesting. I was always of the opinion that China would never make an overt move for Taiwan, but the world has shifted dramatically in the last few years, and the room for military maneuver is wide. Both of the other two great powers (Russia and the US) have already done large scale military operations. Will China take advantage of that space and have their own Special Military Operation, as a treat? Still so much uncertainty, but I think the portends are signalling that sooner or later they will.

Per https://archive.ph/yJLjx

[-] CarmineCatboy2@hexbear.net 51 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

You did say to take this with a grain of salt but I feel that a gunfight involving a whole infantry company, in a government hotel, in Beijing would not remain within the realm of 'internet rumour' for very long. And if I was about to do a coup d'etat I'd have moved way more than just 100 soldiers to one location.

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Despite the "ceasefire" agreement, fighting continues between the "HTS" regime and the "SDF" in northeastern Syria. Most combat is currently occurring near "SDF"-controlled Ayn al-Arab (AKA "Kobani"), which is separated and isolated from the "SDF" controlled areas in and around Qamishli and Hasakah. "SDF" drone strikes reportedly destroyed an entire "HTS" regime military convoy on this front:

https://southfront.press/kurdish-drones-obliterate-syrian-army-convoy-amid-fragile-ceasefire-videos/

[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 52 points 3 months ago
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[-] grandepequeno@hexbear.net 51 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Pretty big storm hit Portugal on wednesday, especially the Leiria region on the coast (you can see how the storm formed a "sting" that went through the region).

The PM took 30 hours to declare a state of emergency, Leiria has no internet but people are saying there was a lot of destruction there. Floods in other regions on the coast.

In Marinha Grande, a former industrial region where the communist party used to be pretty strong but has since lost to the socialists and to an "independent citizens movement", there was no light or gas for a while in most places so the party opened up its local office for people to use the stoves and such, which is pretty new because there we don't usually have storms like this.

Video of someone's modular house being blown off

I doubt there will be political consequences from this, there weren't really for the other disasters we've had, and if there are it will probably be a huge shift to the far-right in the region out of resentment, because that's just how fucked things are rn

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[-] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 51 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Since the previous comment is getting quite long, I'll continue here. Update on the US military buildup against Iran: The 6x EA-18G Growler electronic warfare aircraft currently forward deployed at Puerto Rico will be heading towards the Middle East. They were the aircraft the 2x KC-46 Pegasus mid air refueling aircraft picked up earlier this morning. Their departure was confirmed by local plane spotters and amateur radio operators. My guess on F-35s was wrong.

Local spotter confirmation, same person that took a lot of the pictures of US fighter aircraft at Puerto Rico

Amateur radio operator confirmation

The EA-18G Growler is a fighter aircraft, a specialised version of the F/A-18F Super Hornet, that specialises in suppressing air defences and executing jamming/electronic attacks using additional receiver and jamming pods, anti radiation missiles (homes on the electromagnetic radiation emitted by ground based radars, nothing to do with nukes) and an electronic warfare officer in the back seat to co-ordinate all these activities.

The particular EA-18Gs deployed in Puerto Rico and used to suppress Venezuelan air defences are equipped with the latest AN/ALQ-249 Next Generation Jammer- Mid Band (NGJ-MB) pods, in addition to the older AN/ALQ-99 Tactical Jamming System (TJS) pods. The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier's air wing is also equipped with a squadron of EA-18Gs with the same newer NGJ-MB pods and older TJS pods, and in addition they can equip the NGJ-MB and TJS on the same aircraft, which the EA-18Gs at Puerto Rico didn't do, having to use seperate aircraft for each system. There's also a squadron of F-35Cs onboard. So there's a substantial amount of electronic attack aircraft headed towards the Middle East, totalling 2x EA-18G squadrons (12 aircraft total I'm guessing), both with the latest technology onboard to suppress air defences, and one operating from land and the other by sea.

United States Central Command (CENTCOM), the US Department of Defence combatant command for the Middle East and West Asia, has announced a "multi-day readiness exercise to demonstrate the ability to deploy, disperse, and sustain combat airpower across the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility." Expect more movements of fighter aircraft to the Middle East.

Source

[-] MelianPretext@lemmygrad.ml 51 points 3 months ago

I think after nearly a month now, the dust has settled enough to try at some material analysis of the consequences of Maduro and Cilia Flores’ abduction. This will not be a very "bloomer" ‘el pueblo unido jamas sera vencido’ post, but I’ll try not to unnecessarily stress any grim pronouncements.

The point (or rather, benefit) of the episode for American objectives isn't necessarily regime change (though this has, of course, been technically accomplished with the abduction of the elected executive), but to personalize geopolitics. There exist contradictions between the interests of a nation (including but not exclusively its collective people), its state apparatus, and its individual leadership. For the most part, these interests are generally aligned, but there will always exist gaps and material differences. This can be (and historically has been) exploited.

The consequences of this range from a complete (though generally temporary) disorientation of an adversary’s leadership dynamic (such as the Romans kidnapping/eliminating Germanic chieftains like the famous Arminius and his family or Armenian/Parthian kings), to engendering shifts in grand strategy and geopolitical policy (such as the Ming becoming insular and defensive after the capture of the emperor Yingzong), to creating interpersonal compromises that would not otherwise be possible (Churchill allegedly working out the European balance of power with Stalin, including the abandonment of the Italian and Greek communists, over "a napkin paper").

This latter point is why Trump insists on person-to-person meetings with top leadership from designated adversaries like Xi or Putin (or Kim during his first term). This is also how the USSR was brought down by the likes of Reagan, Thatcher, and Kohl; the personal rapport they built with Gorbachev manifested an intense anxiety within the latter not to "disappoint" his "friends," which limited his scope of actions (not just feasibly but even cognitively) in response to the secession of the SSRs and the likes of Yeltsin (who himself would fall under a similar snare with Bush and Clinton). Analyses ranging from liberals like Zubok to Marxist-Leninists like Keeran & Kenny have all commented on this relationship dilemma as a reason why Gorbachev (deliberately and consciously) did not follow in Deng’s footsteps (noting that the Chinese response to the Tiananmen counter-revolution, and the subsequent Western propaganda backlash, actually preceded most of the counter-revolutions that would follow in other socialist states, which is a chronological relationship not often fully appreciated).

This does not imply the "Great Man of History" thesis is actually valid, but rather that the influences of the individual and the collective exist in a dialectical relationship instead of a zero-sum state.

With a month’s distance, it can be argued that Maduro’s abduction successfully serves as an example to cow the rest of the world, but this statement requires further nuance. Yes, Venezuela still largely endures and the PSUV hasn’t yet become compradors, but those would have been secondary benefits. The message isn’t to the Venezuelan people but to political leadership in especially (but not limited to) the Global South: the taboo of the personalization of geopolitics not only no longer exists as a deterrence, but that there are also no true consequences to breaches of that taboo against them and their loved ones.

It shows that the country doesn’t necessarily need its particular leadership to endure, but this fact serves to isolate that particular leadership from its people and government, by driving a cognitive and material wedge between the alignment of their interests. This fact has been repeatedly pointed out by leftists since the episode as a way to bolster morale, but without appreciation that the particular leadership being personally captured, humiliated, and treated as a criminal (alongside their partner) won’t share that view. Overall, there has been zero real blowback in general, but also none whatsoever to the benefit of Maduro’s rescue and liberation. It shows that the US could walk in, remove the top leadership, and yet leave the country alone; the country moves on, but the leadership is effectively abandoned to the whims of the United States. This exerts a moderating and coercive influence on any successors.

This abduction takes advantage of the contradictions between the interests of a political leadership and the country’s own interests by honing in on and weaponizing the gap. People are obviously loath to give Trump and his minions any credit, but this doesn’t even need to be the Trump administration’s original intent. The important thing is that these consequences are always retrospectively self-rationalizing, and this is an inevitable perception that will manifest particularly within the leadership of any designated adversaries vulnerable to what was done in Venezuela.

This may provide a material basis to explain any future actions by political leadership not just in Venezuela, but also elsewhere in the Global South that appear to go against the interests of their country, even and especially if that particular leadership has seemingly demonstrated their “bona fides” to certain principled positions in the past.

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this post was submitted on 26 Jan 2026
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