Latest federal polling numbers from Mainstreet (lemmy.ca)

submitted 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) by avidamoeba@lemmy.ca to c/canada@lemmy.ca

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We talked about the possibility of an election, likelyhood and risk in another thread yesterday. With party and leader numbers like these... maybe it's more likely than I thought.

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[-] melsaskca@lemmy.ca 4 points 6 days ago

Sorry, you lost me at polls. Don't trust 'em. Don't believe in 'em. They are usually not an accurate reflection of larger society, regardless of how pure they want you to believe their sampling is. They do, however, generate huge discussions which result in clicks for money, so there's that.

[-] FreshParsnip@lemmy.ca 5 points 1 week ago

Conservative numbers are still too high

[-] tiredofsametab@fedia.io 3 points 6 days ago

Cons are 36%, right? Colourblind people problems.

[-] avidamoeba@lemmy.ca 2 points 6 days ago

Yeah.

[-] masterspace@lemmy.ca 20 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Jesus Christ.

I know every online leftist seems to think Carney is the devil, but these numbers should give people massive pause at what the alternative looks like.

It's wild to me that with as centrist as Carney's been, he's barely pulled any of the actual conservative vote to him. Really seems like we have a serious problem with growing entrenched conservatism in this country.

[-] Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works 11 points 1 week ago

The party with the most potential to reach that entrenched conservative vote is the NDP. If they can show working class voters that they're the ones really fighting for them, they have an opportunity to make big inroads.

[-] masterspace@lemmy.ca 6 points 1 week ago

I would like to believe that's true, but I'm not convinced that it is.

The Conservatives had an entrenched 30-33% of the vote, all the way through the Layton years.

[-] Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works 2 points 6 days ago

Sure, and the Liberals have always had their entrenched numbers too.

If you believe that the entire Canadian electorate is fundamentally unchangeable, then you're basically arguing that there's no point in third parties even existing. We are doomed to endlessly rock back and forth between Cons and Libs forever, and nothing can be done about it.

[-] avidamoeba@lemmy.ca 8 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

True but there's an argument to be made that by the time of Layton, the NDP had already abandoned its unabashed pro-worker agenda for a neolib-lite one with social progs characteristics. Check this from 2011. It could easily be a LPC platform. Their 2006 platform was similar. Today NDP leadership campaigns talk about workers, worker rights, unions, jobs programs, democratizing workplaces, new crown corps, etc. Not saying it's guaranteed to shake workers from PP's grip, but that there's a notable shift in policy proposals and focus. That said the NDP arose from the needs of unionists and socialist farmers where the current con hotbed is so perhaps there's a chance.

[-] Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works 3 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

Yeah, there's this obsessive nostalgia around Layton that tends to blind people to the fact that he wasn't the progressive socialist hero that everyone has recast him as in their minds.

[-] tleb@lemmy.ca 4 points 1 week ago

True, and it was actually the NDP that the Conservatives got a lot of vote share from, despite a lot of people assuming the Liberals got NDP votes.

[-] avidamoeba@lemmy.ca 2 points 1 week ago

Both happened.

[-] tleb@lemmy.ca 3 points 1 week ago

I never said both didn't happen, but the important metric is how seats flipped (since afaik there's no info on individual vote intention changes)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Canadian_federal_election#Seats_that_changed_hands

Liberals gained 7 from NDP, Conservatives gained 10 from NDP.

[-] avidamoeba@lemmy.ca 1 points 1 week ago

I didn't mean to say you're wrong.

[-] Routhinator@lemmy.ca 11 points 1 week ago

The bulk of consevative voters dont choose who they vote for. They view voting like sports, they vote for their favourite team regardless of who is on it.

The only voters that can be pulled are the centre-right swing voters.

The liberal voters are smarter in their voting, and thus when there are good alternative options their vote splits.

[-] avidamoeba@lemmy.ca 9 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

It's wild to me that with as centrist as Carney's been, he's barely pulled any of the actual conservative vote to him. Really seems like we have a serious problem with growing entrenched conservatism in this country.

You can say that again. It's also not geographically uniform. It's much more entrenched in some places than others.

I know every online leftist seems to think Carney is the devil

I'd like to mildly push back on this. A lot of lefties, myself included, can hold two opinions at once - that he was/is a necessary tool to achieve the goal of keeping PP from power in the current socioeconomic context, and that he is/going to be harmful in certain ways. Accessible voter pool numbers for NDP/LPC support the hypothesis that lefties have provisionally lent their support to Carney. I have both paid to get Carney elected, and I shit on him regularly. In fact I think anyone who's voted for him should shit on him. The Canadian culture of not complaining much isn't good for us.

[-] masterspace@lemmy.ca 3 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

I generally agree with most of what you said, but there's a balance to be struck when it comes to shitting on things.

If you publish that opinion online, be it a newspaper editorial, or a random comment on a post, you are helping to spread that opinion, and that general emotional sentiment, to others.

And both social media companies, and foreign governments (and some internal actors), all benefit from the population being angry and divided. There is a constant bias towards anger that always need tempering.

Well thought out and reasoned critiques about specific choices are one thing, glib comments made from skimming headlines are another.

[-] avidamoeba@lemmy.ca 1 points 1 week ago

Yes.

Us here are just a bunch of people exchanging opinions through fleeting breaks throughout the day so it's normal for people's opinions to be glib oneliners, like they often are in RL. You're right that they reach further and last longer here than RL but I don't think we percieve it that way and I don't think there's a good chance for that changing. It's why you try to say something more thoughtful, so others hopefully see it and think a bit more. I don't think there's a point to feel negative if people don't put as much effort. You do what you can. Others too. Not sure if this comment was useful. 😄

[-] NoneOfUrBusiness@fedia.io 3 points 1 week ago

but these numbers should give people massive pause at what the alternative looks like.

If you think anything Carney is doing is avoiding "the alternative" I have an America to sell you.

It's wild to me that with as centrist as Carney's been, he's barely pulled any of the actual conservative vote to him.

That's because centrist liberals don't, in fact, pull conservatives; I mean how would they? Centrists affirm that conservatives are right, and if you're right and have someone who represents you fully why would you settle for half measures? It's leftists who pull conservatives, because they actually present new/"new" solutions to people's problems.

TLDR: Between three parties that promise to kill all Jews, kill half of all Jews and implement minimum wage respectively, someone who believes the solution to their poverty is to kill all Jews is going to vote for either 1 or 3, but never 2.

[-] Warehouse@lemmy.ca 13 points 1 week ago

The Liberals were also popular in 2021 after their handling of COVID but calling an early election didn't land them a majority. We might see the same thing here. Granted having Poilievre have to contend with another leadership review after just finishing his last one would be pretty funny.

[-] avidamoeba@lemmy.ca 8 points 1 week ago

Granted having Poilievre have to contend with another leadership review after just finishing his last one would be pretty funny.

Would be almost worth it seeing that. 😆

[-] xc2215x@lemmy.world 3 points 1 week ago

Voters have given up on the NDP.

[-] Phil_in_here@lemmy.ca 11 points 1 week ago

I cannot express how much I hate strategic voting. But basically every ~~Canadian~~ person living in Canada thats eyeballing the US thinking "thats the way we should be" is Conservative and that number is growing worryingly high.

We need electoral reform and we needed it 30 years ago.

[-] Melvin_Ferd@lemmy.world 3 points 6 days ago

How could it not be growing. The left abandoned any social media spaces. They have left every high profile leftist high and dry letting the right dominate the conversation. Nobody is out there spreading and supporting the left. For some reason thé biggest effort on the left is organizing bigger and bigger protests but then going home after their most vocal and active leaders are killed or arrested.

[-] puppinstuff@lemmy.ca 7 points 1 week ago

At least until the new leadership race has concluded. The country is hungry for an official opposition that can work with government when it’s in the shared national interest.

[-] kent_eh@lemmy.ca 4 points 6 days ago

Exactly

[-] Melvin_Ferd@lemmy.world 2 points 6 days ago

I think people have given up on the left overall but the right wing machine is so aggressive and entrenched into everything that we are casting votes to liberals to hang on