You know what? Fucking do it.
Inflation will really fucking suck for a while, but anything that makes renewables and nuclear the better option is going to be a good thing in the long term. Strangle the oil industry with high prices, we fucking need it.
This won't just affect oil by the way, fertilisers are a direct product of natural gas, bunkering, electricity, transport, the list goes on.
The ripple effect might just pop the AI bubble. Good luck.
Ferts can be made without natural gas, just bit more bothersome. Instead of cracking methane for hydrogen, we'll have to split water.
Im sure it will be great comfort to the billions who starve in a global famine while we spend decades building out the infrastructure for that.
We're already building it out because morons think hydrogen is the future of energy.
That's probably overselling the importance of fertilizer a little. A huge proportion of the food we grow is completely wasted, rots without anyone eating it, or doesn't "look nice" so gets fed to animals who could just as easily eat other food sources. Another gigantic portion of the is grown inefficiently and stupidly for political and cultural and other asinine reasons, grown in inefficient places, or are inefficient crops to begin with. Sometimes it's all of the above, and sometimes it's not even grown for food at all, it's grown for oil. We burn it, because that's environmentally friendly, somehow. Famine is not a global agricultural problem, it's an economic problem, sometimes an intellectual property problem and almost always a political problem, it has nothing to do with lack of fertilizer, it never has been, and it almost certainly never will be. The whole system is rigged top to bottom, and fertilizer isn't going to make or break it.
Bubbles pop. Letting them grow more before they pop doesn't help.
haha, reminds me that in 2007 I was delivering flowers when gas prices spiked and I made the mistake of opining that it wasn't all bad - for basically that reason. The owner did NOT appreciate my comments. lol.
Nothing came of it or anything, it was just a little awkward for a bit. And I did express sympathy for her costs. But she could have optimized deliveries SO much better - I tried to help - but she just didn't care. Even though....... it cost her much more gas. heh
She was a good person, just a little blind about some things. :)
A year from now, after we've been paying $5 a gallon for gas, we'll find out the oil companies had the biggest record profit year in their history. Then they'll announce layoffs.
Fyi Canadians pay well over 5$ a gallon. I'm sure others pay significantly more as well.
Just explaining so you know that many people won't understand your comment
Don't forget to convert the currency. $5 USD /gal is about $1.50 CAD /L, which is bang for Western Canada and cheaper than gas prices right now in Eastern Canada.
You're right though, those aren't the insane prices the original poster thinks they are for countries outside the US.
All the pumps are $1.80 for standard in my city.
It's about 650 per gallon Canadian. I meant it's already above 5 usd per gallon
I live in Los Angeles, and the price of gas for premium is like 5.60 or higher. It's 'high' for us but not insane.
Cute, in Austria it's at 7€ now, Germany is higher. But we don't drive gas guzzling tanks.
Hitting 8€ in Germany now, which apparently is 9.23 USD. But I lived without a car for a long time now and will get an electric car soon, so I will "only" feel the indirect consequences 😂
Demand destruction will start happening well before it reaches $200/bbl.
Prices of $120-140 begin demand destruction and economic recessions (as 2022 showed), with destruction accelerating past $160. Transportation costs doubling will put almost immediate halts on capex planning for most organizations. I would be surprised if sustained prices beyond $160/bbl could exist for more than a couple weeks before the global economy tail spins so fucking hard it immediately stops consuming the oil supply lost from the strait of Hormuz.
There's also renewables. Solar is already cost competitive and there's no way EVs aren't flying off the shelves right now
Are you sure you aren't underestimating the huge volume of demand that needs to be destroyed? I believe something like 20%-25% of demand needs to be destroyed, in both the crude and LNG markets.
The last time demand was 20% lower than baseline was during the two worst months of Covid, when the majority of people were staying inside their home
So the question is: how high does the price of oil have to get in order to force people to consume like they did under the worst of Covid?
I'm no economist, but my gut feeling says it will be sustained significantly higher than $160/barrel.
Industrial activity was still up during covid though, with all the shortages and everything most manufacturers were still running flat out. This demand destruction would be at the very base of consumption, not driven from the top consumer.
Honestly fuck yeah
That's okay, I was planning on staying home anyways.
This is TERRIBLE! We paid Trump MILLIONS of Dollars and FUNDED a War with Venezuela! HOW could he Do this to US!
-Oil CEOS!
So this makes me think. Did they attack Venezuela first to get access to the oil there and prevent a price spike from happening when they attacked Iran? Or am I giving the current regime too much credit?
Considering that representatives from the Trump cabinet appeared to be surprised that Iran can and did block the strait of Hormuz, I'd say you are giving too much credit.
Also, the US is a net exporter of oil. National supply concerns aren't the issue so much as global supply shock. Restrictions anywhere lead to price hikes.
Reminder that literally not one single major oil company wanted to be involved in Trump's plans to exploit Venezuelan oil - with the exception of the one company already there, who basically suggested they might make some very, very small expansions to their operations - because all of them thought it was an idiotic idea.
Wasn't the Venezuela oil basically worthless because proper extraction would be too expensive to be viable?
It's doubtful if most of the reserves can become viable at any price. (Because the cost of materials increase when oil price increase.) But some are perfectly viable.
But also, even in perfect conditions, if they started drilling right now (what they aren't), it will take several month to start getting any of it.
Too expensive at $60 a barrel. Worth it at $200.
Not sure if too expensive but the geopolitical risk is too high.
So how is a local rebellion supposed to work when a fat orange won't take his short, weird fingers off the 'fire missiles at everything' button?
the black smoke was supposed to be cover so they can organize... right?
At this point either Trump commits to a land invasion and we have 20 years and trillions of dollars and tens if not hundreds of thousands of American lives wasted, not even counting how many millions of Iranian lives would be wasted as well. Or Trump backs down and asks China to act as a mediator because there's no way Iran would trust Trump to negotiate.
Or Trump declares victory (didn’t he already do that?) and goes home. In a bit of circular reasoning, maybe he starts making waves about the Epstein files to distract people from Iran
On Wednesday, the G7 group of nations - the United States, Canada, Japan, Italy, Britain, Germany and France - agreed to examine the option of providing escort for ships so they can navigate freely in the Gulf.
Cool. Cool. Cool. Everyone can get sucked into another pointless US Middle East war.
Why not just go atom bomb and do $500?
Friendly fire from radiation. Also, I suppose that it looks more satisfying to burn ships one by one.
This is fun because when does the war end? When the US says so?
When our country holds Trump accountable for his illegal acts.
So another forever war.
k
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