"If these trends continue..... Eyyyyy!"

I had sex 20 minutes ago. If these trends continue I will have sex every hour until the end of time. /s

At her current rate of growth, my niece will weigh 290,000 pounds by the time she’s 10 years old.

Yes, that's correct. If you cherrypick data and extrapolate your preferred assumptions about it you can make it say the thing you want.

It already is. The headline is missing "desktop".

There really just isn't enough data here to make those conclusions.

For example, here's the Steam survey data plotted without the added estimated graph lines.

Mostly flat, slow trend upwards, slightly sharper increase more recently.

That could flatline again, curve back down, grow way slower, grow way faster, etc. There's just not enough data there to predict the next 4X as long amount of time anywhere close to accurately.

The decade of the year of the Linux desktop

What? Linux is the dominant OS right now.

Extrapolated data aside, Linux is already the dominant OS (really, family of operating systems, since Debian, RHEL, etc. are separate operating systems) for servers. Additionally, the majority of smartphones run Android, which uses the Linux kernel. And yes, everyone knows, it's as much of a Linux distribution as iOS is based on BSD, but still.

FOSS isn’t a race, FOSS is plant life…it doesn’t need to dominate or win anything. It just needs to survive.

FOSS is already in most proprietary software already and Linux powers most devices.

Year of the Linux desktop is a pointless metric.

It already is.

(you didn't specify what type of OS)

Also, I'm not really interested in domination.

Finally. 2036 is the year of the Linux desktop

Windows becoming a Linux distribution.

not what I want, I want Windows (as in, the existing Windows codebase) to become FOSS, if that happened, we would no longer need to care about anyone switching to Linux, in fact I might then install a FOSS Windows myself

Already is.

And wtf graphs

Unfortunately trends never stay. I think it takes more than just 10 years to dominate Linux in the desktop market. If it ever happens. I mean not even Apple could break it, and that is a huge company. There is a point when the growth slow down. In example the initial adoption rate is often higher than the last remaining. We don't even know what Microsoft will do. Remember Windows XP? The trends were different then. Remember Windows 8? Adoption rate doesn't work like a simple graph.

Linux desktop does not need to be "dominant", it just needs big enough to be "relevant". I would be flabbergasted if we reach 30% in 20 years.

imagines tux with a leather whip giving windows a good run for it’s naughty boy money

Is it getting warm in here or is that just me?

This isn't totally crazy. Microsoft is heavily invested in the AI bubble and will not go as they will have less money to fund windows, which is already losing all of its competitive edges and is not working right. The niche is where windows will be necessary instead of a choice that can easily be done away with are going to shrink possibly all the way down to Legacy business application support at which point even then it would be a heterogeneous environment at those companies

Yep. It's happening. Ignore the naysayers.

The market share data showing increase is still early to make sweeping predictions on, but that's not important because the processes driving the uptake are measurable and show consistent trends.

Windows won't get better. Apple won't get cheaper. Steam will continue supporting investment in Linux. Linux will continue to get more developers and community support and keep improving from its already very respectable usability.

There are countless of paper cuts a normie would get. I’m all for Linux, but I don’t believe it. I’d rather believe Windows would go into oblivion and macOS would take its place with laptops for $200…300 (at least used Neos in like 5 years).