It would be hilarious if in the end this would cause the bubble to burst
It does seem like someone wants their investments back and pass on the money black hole over to the public.
I'd be surprised if they can continue their business as is after an IPO.
SpaceX is going public at $2 Trillion dollars on like $12b of revenue.
They’re trying to foist the bag on to index funds.
How does that even happen? They just decide what their valuation is??
Yes.
Elon musk had SpaceX buy XAi which bought Twitter all for increasingly more money from himself. The valuation is based on that. Somehow.
Apparently they claim their TAM is $28T because identifying trillion dollar businesses is their core “repeatable business model”. None of the companies folded into SpaceX now are trillion dollar companies. How the argument that the core business is making trillion dollar companies, despite not making any trillion dollar companies, makes any sense I do not know.
Also uhh… don’t look at their declining real revenue, or that they just bought $1B of depreciating assets from Tesla like $138M of cyber trucks. That definitely was not because they weren’t selling.
Edit: Here's a video on this so you all can see exactly how shitty this deal is https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-X6YzlY_8tM
Yes I believe the TAM or value or whatever of a single company is 12% of all wealth in the U.S. That makes sense.
I have to be honest, I don't know how any investor read their S1 and still wants to put money in this thing.
I mean, I know Carlin said it's a big club and you're not in it, but fuck. They're all in on it.
yes. see also: capitalism
How can it be possible?
How in the everloving fuck can that happen?
How are the streets not running with blood?
waves hands
Corruption.
Fire all the regulators, find some shit to pump, get all your buddies in, have the NASDAQ make special rules for you, then everyone who bought in private sells on open when the index funds have to buy in. Many pensions may be legally forced to buy this shit to satisfy regulations.
It's fucked. Well over 100x revenue multiples at IPO. They just filled their S1.
The market makers are turning index funds into 2008's CDOs.
They are going to enshittify so hard trying to get their money back... it's too bad, too. I use ChatGPT a fair bit for various things. But eras end and this could herald the end of it being useful to me. At some point I was always just going to set up my own local AI on a server here at home. Hopefully hardware prices can recover a bit before I feel compelled to move on from ChatGPT.
I saw an article talking about how prices for AI are cheap as hell right now cuz they're trying to get people used to not thinking (or programing) for themselves. Then when people are dependent on it they're planning on jacking the price up.
The prices are already going up, look at anthropic's price hikes, or the GitHub copilot ones. You're right it is just the start though.
Axios just announced that AI is now more expensive than hiring a human.
I'm an atheist, but i pray this happens I'm so sick of AI.
hope he brings thiel down with him too.
Pump and dump, anybody?
We're getting closer to the bubble popping
Can't wait to see their financials in the excruciating detail that's required of an IPO filing.
China won the game. Their models are cheap and available and free weights.
Openai will never make any money. They realized it's a high time to sell so. Wouldnt give a dime
They're also behind Anthropic when it comes to expensive frontier models.
I wouldn't buy their stock even if I was looking to invest in AI.
And, as I understand it, Anthropic hasn't committed as much spending to building out new data centers, and has setup their operations to be GPU agnostic, so they can keep flexibility between NVIDIA GPUs, Google TPUs, and Amazon Trainium, and play the data center pricing game. Anthropic is better positioned to survive an AI winter (and I believe it's coming soon).
Their reputation is also a bit in the toilet, because people hear "AI" and think of ChatGPT.
So "man hospitalised after AI suggested he put glue on pizza for tackiness" would have people think he was using it, when he might well have been using a different LLM.
It's true.
The field is moving so fast that things can change quickly, but the American labs are so caught up in saddling their models with safety overhead that the recent Chinese models are very close in practical use to the flagship American models if not pulling ahead (Sora vs Seedance 2).
I don't really need to solve Erdős problems in my day to day. Outside of increasingly edge case eval competition, I'm not sure what OpenAI brings that literally everyone else isn't also capable of providing (and more).
I'd maybe invest in Anthropic for an IPO if they turned around their own saddling of models and played nicer with open platforms, but if Claude is just going to get more and more anxious due to excessive red teaming and CC fall further and further behind stuff like Hermes Agent, they too are going to fall by the wayside as open models become the dominant inference for open infrastructure.
Their models may also be based on US models.
It'll be hard for derivative models to innovate if their host organism has died.
Distillation isn't stealing the original model, though. It just uses the models to make synthetic training data to train their own thing. They aren't stealing the model itself.
Plus, a lot of companies do it. Anthropic's Claude was calling itself DeepSeek for a while.
It also doesn't seem like as big a deal as Anthropic and Open AI make it look, IMO. Them treating it like a national security issue where the company gets its models stolen from under its nose just comes across like a media company claiming that every download is a copy they would otherwise have sold at full price, and thus they have accrued trillions of dollars in damages.
I could, in theory, take a bunch of google Gemini outputs, and train a GPT-2 model on them. That doesn't mean that I've recreated Gemini, nor does it mean that i've stolen it from Google, either.
ALTMAN is looking to cash out stock options before OPENAI crashes and burns. much like spez did with reddit.
Have they finally run out of money and need a new source of cash to burn?
A $35 billion investment from Amazon hinges on OpenAI providing an IPO... So this does reek of desperation one way or another.
This is not happening.
It's just posturing.
Sam alttab is getting out and swapping to something else
Who will fall for the IPOAI rug-pull?
I kinda dislike public companies/IPOs :(
Can someone explain to me why it would be a bad idea to short the fuck out of this stock? I'd like to make money and be a principled human at the same time, but I'm not well versed in the stock market.
The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
It's a bad idea because shorting requires a settlement date.
You can't keep a short the same way that you keep an investment. You need to predict at what time it is worth less than it is now.
It's also a bad idea, because you can lose more than you invest. If you buy a stock, you can only lose the purchase price of that stock. If you short it, there's no upper limit to how much you can lose if the stock keeps rising. The people holding the stocks will do anything to keep inflating the stock price, even if it's evident to everyone that it is a bubble. As long as they can keep throwing money at it, they can keep the price going up.
I'm not well versed in the stock market.
This is a good reason not to short.
principled human
This is an even better reason not to short.
You're a dog you can't legally invest
Check the rules! I once heard there was no rule that a dog couldn't be in the NBA.
I think dogs should have the right to vote.
If you have 5 to 10 years, and can afford to lose the money, it sounds like a great idea
afford to lose the money
Yeah that's the thing about shorting. Nobody knows how much that is. It's potentially infinite.
This is a most excellent place for technology news and articles.
