It's pushing us into extremely weird territory to have two candidates this unpopular.
The difference is Biden unpopularity is due to uncertainty while trumps is due to EXTREME certainty that he’s a piece of garbage
Biden unpopularity is due to uncertainty
Which I don't understand. I'm certain Biden won't institute project 2025 so the choice should be obvious.
Worst case scenario for Biden is he's mostly absent and his cabinet has to guide him through policies making the Democratic party mostly in control.
Which is pretty much exactly what Trump's first term was adding in a lot of grift and pointless spite.
For real. Also I doubt Biden will try to start a coup to stay in power
And while there are exceptions (looking at you Garland), most of Biden's team are pretty solid. For example, I would keep Lena Khan exactly where she is regardless of which Democrat is in charge. He's got a lot more young smart staff than he gets credit for.
But that's almost exactly what the president is supposed to do. Like forget Bidens mental state right now, just talking about any president, one of the main reasons aside from their "vision" we vote for them is for their ability to judge individuals capabilities or to have the capability of knowing how to find those people. The administration should ideally be made up of experts in their respective areas that will guide the president. He just makes the final call as to whether to listen or not, we shouldn't expect him to know everything and to be able to work without "the administration."
It's one of the main reasons I loath Trump. I hate him as a person, but as a president I hate that he wants "yes men." He doesn't want guidance, he wants subservience to follow his will. That's one of the bigger problems with project 2025 as well, their purity tests and seeking of more "yes men" will cripple the government as they aren't lead by anything other than orders from above.
All that said, Biden does have to comprehend the guidance he's being given. All we can see from Biden is how he operates behind a camera and on the spot. I don't know if anyone has spoken about his capacity when he's "working." (Massive copium hit.)
If you narrow your scope to just the presidency maybe. The real worst case scenario is he completely fails to run an effective campaign and creates a huge red wave sweeping a big group of fascists into power.
Uncertainty my ass. Joe Biden is running on an excellent record. He is running on his policies.
People don't care about policies.
There's nothing uncertain about Biden at this point. It's a matter of being in denial or anger.
I think what they're getting at is that we're uncertain the extent age will affect his duties. Will his cabinet and other advisors be really "in control," or will Biden insist on his way forcing others to kowtow. It is certain that the dude is old as hell and if it were he alone, he would be incapable of the job. Since there's a staff and a ton of advisors, the degree of control they have is, well, uncertain.
Sir. You seem to have forgotten about inconsolable hopelessness.
There’s no pushing. We were already in extremely weird territory when the news media can present the candidates so dishonestly that Biden is at all unpopular.
He forgave hundreds of billions of dollars in students loans, reduced income inequality for the first time in god knows how long, increased working class wages even when adjusted for historically massive inflation, raised corporate tax by a MASSIVE amount in order to fund all of the above, and also spent a trillion dollars on trying to address climate change, like the first time ever that a US presidency actually tried to do something about it in a big way, which is way too little way too late but that’s not his fault.
His opponent is a literal pants shitting moron who goes on weird tirades about toilets and windmills; even the truest of true believers often walk out of his speeches before they are finished, because they are unhinged and random and, at the end of the day, uninteresting. His campaign priorities are cartoonishly evil. Beyond cartoonish. They sound like a joke. He wants to kill foreigners, throw his political opponents in prison, and make friends with our nation’s worst enemies siding with them against American soldiers and American people. He wants to ban contraception and porn, and dismantle the Department of Education and the FDA. And the FBI. And NOAA.
And yet, somehow, the news manages to present such a distorted landscape that “Biden is very old and shit the bed at the debate” is like the most relevant thing everyone is trying to talk about, even now, a month later, when it is objectively undeniable that the great mass of the Democratic electorate doesn’t give a shit about it and cares more about all that earlier stuff. As well they should. They are, surprisingly enough, not as stupid as you and the news keep consistently, relentlessly, dishonestly, pretending that they are.
I won’t say that distorted media creation won’t succeed, and get Trump elected, against whoever his opponent turns out to be. But yes, it will be extremely weird (as well as absolutely infuriating for those of us who live in America and have to experience what might happen under a second Trump presidency) how we got here and what destination we’ve arrived at.
You forgot the part where he literally raped children and argued after the fact about who deserved to claim one of their virginities.
Allegedly.
Dude it is IMPOSSIBLE to list bad things Trump did without missing some huge ones
Hey did you know his estranged ex-wife died by falling down the stairs, and she’s buried on his property?
I’m not saying that automatically definitively means anything. But tell me one other human being on the planet who that combination of circumstances ever happened to.
Or, alternately, one other human being who was once involved with Trump for which he gives any kind of a shit any which way about where they should be buried.
I’ll wait.
and she’s buried on his property?
Wasn't there some speculation about tax codes and cemeteries?
Nah, he had her buried under his golf course so he could cheat on her one last time.
If it weren’t for the political realities of how voting works under first-past-the-post, the progressive wing of the Democratic party could have easily split off into a separate party whose younger leadership and willingness to push for actually-meaningful change could probably have run circles around the Dems at this point.
...Man, I really wish I could vote for a presidential candidate that I actually believed in, instead of this "vote for the status-quo neoliberal or democracy dies" bullshit.
This copium is off the charts ridiculous.
I don't want Trump to win, which is why I think it's incredibly unhelpful to spread the delusion that current polling is favorable to a Biden victory.
That wasn't even true before the debate, but at least there were enough polls within the margin of error that it was possible.
Biden's polling has only gone down since then, while Trump's have trended upwards. Not by the same margins, but still, opposite directions.
This article is actually arguing about changes in polls that are less than 0.5%, seriously, it's a joke...
Here is an aggregated page that links out to over 50 different polls for Georgia, one of the states mentioned in the article where Trump it's supposedly hurting, according to that article:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president-georgia.html
Here's that same aggregated polling information for the other two states mentioned in the article:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president-michigan.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president-north-carolina.html
Take a look and tell me if that article, much less it's headline, have any bearing on reality.
Yeah, dems are looking for any positive spin on this reeling campaign.
Posting 538 links here because they aren't paywalled and are doing similar aggregating with similar results for anyone who doesn't want to use nyt:
Just FYI, 538 today is not the same as it was when they became noteworthy. Nate Silver left the company (and its parent, Disney). He also took his models with him, since those were merely licensed (unlike the name/company).
The new 538 is being run by a guy with very questionable models.
A friend of mine has right-wing parents who were Trump boosters in 2016. He says that January 6th left them aghast, and they aren't supporting him now. That's just two people sure, and this is entirely anecdotal, but it might be indicative of how the wind is blowing.
30% of the people voting in the GOP primary said they wouldn’t necessarily vote for the eventual nominee.
That is a massive and highly unusual number. And, just like so many other things, nobody fuckin knows that, because the media has a code of silence about it like a JV hockey team that just doesn’t talk about Logan’s sex crimes.
They just keep reporting polls of all registered voters who want to answer the phone, trying to correct their ratios and not bothering to try to ascertain who’s likely to vote, and then swearing that 2 point up or down differences in the resulting number are super important.
4 years ago there were a lot of houses with Trump/Pence signs in my neighborhood. Most of them removed their signs after the elections except for a few that had the whole combo police lives matters and don't thread on me and stuff like that. After jan 6 even those houses removed their signs (and all others) and this year I have not seen any Trump sign in any backyard in the area.
It turns out, a lot of people do feel a bit of shame for the way they vote.
Not like that they actually feel bad for fucking over so many people, but they don't like looking like they are helping so many people getting fucked over.
don't thread on me
Nudist trumpers?
Some people still have some values. 34 felonies, rape, and paying hush money to a porn star you had sex with while your pregnant wife was at home is enough to cost some votes. I don't care if they vote for Biden, as long as they don't show up and vote for mr 34 felonies it's a win for America.
I think trump needs to address his electability questions. He hasn't had any interviews that properly address his issues, just scripted ones with interviewers that like him.
Just today I've seen people calling for him to step down so another candidate without his issues can be nominated. He'll have to do that if voters continue to lose confidence in him.
You forgot the /s
in Georgia, he has increased his share of the vote by 0.9 percent since the debate, though the Republican Party is still ahead by 3.5 percent.
In Michigan, he has increased his vote share by 0.8 percent making him ahead of Trump by 0.4 percent, and in North Carolina he has also increased his vote share by 0.8 percent, though the Republicans are still ahead by 4 percent.
It feels like the difference is within the margin of error, but I have no clue since they didn’t cite the new poll or the old poll they are comparing it to.
I just can’t believe in any poll that uses landline telephones or any telephones really. Because, who answers an unknown call?
Old conservatives do. All these polls have samples that are biased against young people and mobile phones. Error bounds have increased as smart phones increased their adoption.
Newsweek, bad selection of polls, and results are still not looking great. For goodness sake, can we please ban this news source? It's awful and repeatedly clickbait-y.
Polls aren't votes
Vote
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if there was a political bias between people who are and aren't willing to answer phone calls and participate in polls.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
The presumptive Republican presidential nominee is set to face the incumbent president in November, and polls have so far predicted that the results of the 2020 White House rematch will be tight—with the pair statistically tied or holding only marginal leads in a number of surveys.
However, in three swing states there are signs that Biden has marginally increased his support since participating in the first presidential debate, despite giving what was seen as a poor performance.
During the debate, Biden gave a series of incoherent and confusing responses and appeared to trail off at times without finishing his sentences.
He has since received calls from within his party to end his reelection bid and allow Democrats to install a new candidate for the general election.
Surveys like these are significant due to the Electoral College system, which awards each state a certain number of votes based on population.
But Trump only won there by 1.3 percent of the vote in 2020—his narrowest state win—and North Carolina often elects Democratic governors.
The original article contains 452 words, the summary contains 171 words. Saved 62%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!
Polls? We still think those mean shit!
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