2024 Republican Primary Calendar + Current Polling (lemmy.one)

submitted 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) by jordanlund@lemmy.one to c/politics@lemmy.world

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Labor Day is now over and we move into the full political calendar.

I've put together a listing of the Republican Primary calendar, with dates, delegates and current polling so you can see everything in one place.

As we move out of the Primaries and into the General, I'll set up similar charts for the Presidential race and the Senate races. I'm not sure I personally have the juice to track 435 House races. :)

I'm seeing competing results on the number of delegates, so some states are more accurate than others. As I learn more, I will update the post.

There are a total of 2,467 Republican Delegates up for grabs, 2363 Pledged and 104 Unpledged. Unpledged delegates are bolded below.

1234 delegates (easy to remember!) are needed to win the nomination. Pledged delegates are obligated to support the candidate nominated by their Primary or Caucus. Unpledged delegates can support whoever they would like.

2 states (Wyoming and Pennsylvania) have both Pledged and Unpledged delegates, they are divided with a / mark.

Poll Data comes from fivethirtyeight.com, I've selected the poll that is both the most recent AND has the most complete slate of candidates. It didn't seem fair to compare polls that only had Trump / Desantis vs. a poll with 9 or 10 candidates.

Some of these polls are SUPER old though, from before when Desantis announced, take them with a pound of salt. Will update regularly.

One interesting takeaway - Beyond Trump and Desantis, Mike Pence is the most popular 3rd choice, being listed 11 times and Niki Haley is just behind at 8 times.

If you are familiar with my You Are Here posts for Trump trial dates, those are NOT included here for the simple reasons that a) I didn't want the added clutter, and b) with the exception of the E. Jean Carrol damages ruling on 1/15, there's no way the trials will be over in a day. They will roll on for months.

Updated 9/11/2023

Date	State	Type	Delegates	Poll Date	Trump	Desantis	Other
January 15th	Iowa	Caucus	40	9/2/2023	51	14	Haley - 10
(January)	New Hampshire	Primary	22	8/26/2023	47	10	Haley - 10
February 8th	Nevada	Caucus	26	6/26/2023	52	22	Christie - 3
February 24th	South Carolina	Primary	50	17-Aug	48	14	Scott - 14
February 27th	Michigan	Primary	55	1-Aug	61	13	Pence - 7
(February or March)	Virgin Islands	Caucus	3	(No Polling)
March 2nd	Idaho	Caucus	32	(No Polling)
March 3rd	D.C.	Primary	19	(No Polling)
March 4th	North Dakota	Caucus	29	(No Polling)
March 5th	Alabama	Primary	49	14-Jan	35	53
March 5th	Alaska	Primary	28	(No Polling)
March 5th	Arkansas	Primary	40	31-Aug	58	29
March 5th	California	Primary	169	24-Aug	55	16	Haley - 7
March 5th	Colorado	Primary	37	16-Aug	86	14
March 5th	Maine	Primary	20	22-Mar	45	19	Cheney - 7
March 5th	Massachussetts	Primary	40	28-Mar	59	18	Pence - 10
March 5th	Minnesota	Primary	39	(No Polling)
March 5th	North Carolina	Primary	75	5-Jun	44	22	Haley - 7
March 5th	Oklahoma	Primary	43	27-Mar	38	29	Haley - 6
March 5th	Tennessee	Primary	58	14-Jun	61	12	Pence - 8
March 5th	Texas	Primary	162	30-Jul	48	13	Scott - 5
March 5th	Utah	Caucus	40	7-Aug	27	19	Pence - 9
March 5th	Vermont	Primary	17	4-Feb	85	-	Weld - 6, De La Fuente - 1
March 5th	Virginia	Primary	48	6-Aug	47	13	Youngkin - 9
March 9th	Guam	Caucus	9	(No Polling)
March 12th	Georgia	Primary	59	16-Aug	57	15	Pence - 4
March 12th	Hawaii	Caucus	19	(No Polling)
March 12th	Mississippi	Primary	39	20-Aug	61	22	Christie - 6
March 12th	Missouri	Primary	54	8-Feb	38	35	Haley - 8
March 12th	Washington	Primary	43	(No Polling)
March 19th	Arizona	Primary	43	2-Aug	58	11	Christie - 6
March 19th	Florida	Primary	125	21-Aug	58	23	Christie - 4
March 19th	Illinois	Primary	64	24-Aug	53	10	Haley - 6
March 19th	Kansas	Primary	39	15-Feb	30	17	Pence - 9
March 19th	Ohio	Primary	78	17-Jul	64	9	Ramaswamy - 12
March 23rd	Louisiana	Primary	46	13-Aug	75	10	Pence - 2
April 2nd	Delaware	Primary	16	(No Polling)
April 2nd	New York	Primary	91	20-Jun	61	31	Haley - 9
April 2nd	Rhode Island	Primary	19	31-Aug	54	38
April 2nd	Wisconsin	Primary	41	8-Jun	31	30	Pence - 6
April 18th - 20th	Wyoming	Primary	26/3	10/7/2022	91	-	Walsh, Weld - 0
April 23rd	Pennsylvania	Primary	16/51	2/11/2022	87	-	Walsh, Weld - 2
April 30th	Connecticut	Primary	28	(No Polling)
May 7th	Indiana	Primary	58	12/11/2022	39	28	Pence - 13
May 14th	Maryland	Primary	37	19-Feb	33	27	Hogan - 18
May 14th	Nebraska	Primary	36	(No Polling)
May 14th	West Virginia	Primary	31	22-May	54	9	Pence - 5
May 21st	Kentucky	Primary	46	10-May	70	14	Pence - 4
May 21st	Oregon	Primary	31	(No Polling)
June 4th	Montana	Primary	31	12-Aug	52	15	Ramaswamy - 6
June 4th	New Jersey	Primary	49	16-Jan	93	-	Weld, Walsh - 4
June 4th	New Mexico	Primary	22	3-Jan	87	-	Walsh - 8, Weld - 5
June 4th	South Dakota	Primary	29	(No Polling)
July 15th to 18th	Republican National	Convention		7/18/2024

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[-] jordanlund@lemmy.one 8 points 1 year ago

I wanted to put this together because I see far, far, too many headlines that start with "In a national poll..."

We don't have national elections. Everything is determined state by state. Anytime you see something lead with "In a national poll..." you can likely safely disregard it.

[-] neptune@dmv.social 4 points 1 year ago

A couple states De Santis is ahead or competitive, a couple not so much right now. Doesn't look like anyone is really a consistent third place.

Nate Silver always said the same about national polls: although the trending can show changes in temperature that will affect competitive states.

[-] jordanlund@lemmy.one 2 points 1 year ago

Ahead in Alabama, but that poll is from January so I wouldn't count on it, and there's another recent poll which has Ramaswany in 2nd and Desantis in 3rd.

3 others he's behind just a couple of points.

this post was submitted on 11 Sep 2023

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