Well, yes, because it seems like every time we register, a few months later the Republicans wipe out our registration again.
Conservatives: "...and so I propose this bill to raise the minimum voting age to 38..."
This all suggests that the polling has A LOT of volatility... We really won't know where the fuck national or state level margins will be like from here on out.
At this point we just need to get people to register before the looming deadlines and then start turning out the vote.
Polling got way harder after everyone ditched land lines. Nate Silver went from near perfect handicapping in 2008/2012 to abysmal predictions from 2016 onward.
I genuinely wonder how polling is going to recover. Pollsters are having to rely more and more on the few remaining landlines, online polls of questionable quality, and the rare millennial who is willing to answer calls and texts from unknown numbers. To make up for it, they have to pile on more and more assumptions from things like demographics data.
I don't see any of these factors changing any time soon, and unless pollsters figure out ways to work around them without compromising the quality of their work, they're kind of fucked.
Yep and now you're also getting into the arena of, "okay well you're GETTING people in those age groups and so forth... So what kind of subset of that demographic is actually responding to pollster's calls and texts...?" Is that really a random sample anymore?
E.g., NYT Siena does get youth to respond, but I'm curious how many more calls they have to make to get one versus, say, someone in their 60s.
They're going to have to start figuring out sentiment without polling, which is a lot harder.
The West Wing Weekly touched on this in one of their episodes. Basically they are turning more to focus groups where participants are paid a small amount.
At this point, polling should assume a conservative bias.
Last week, more than 400,000 people visited a link posted on Instagram by pop star Taylor Swift that directed them to their state's voter registration site.
Although Swift noted that she would be voting for the Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, people don't have to declare a party affiliation when they register and neither vote.org nor Swift track registrations by party.
love how they felt the need to point out that Taylor Swift, the pop star, does not track voter registrations by party lol
They insulted Dolly Parton and then Tay Tay came out swinging…..
This is going to be a blow out and then the republicans are going to claim it was stolen because they can’t handle losing.
The fact that anyone can insult Dolly Parton immediately shows you their true character.
“We ride at dawn” was the statement I’d heard about it and quite frankly, I’m in 😝
This election is literally going to be 1980 in reverse.
Young women are going to send MAGA into the Shadow Realm.
In case you haven't registered yet, here you go. Make your voice be heard.
I really, really, really hope so.
But I remember 2016. When all the nice neighbors, friends, co-workers, teachers, hell the delivery guy - all deliberately chose chaotic evil. Despite everything.
Remember, this is two electoral contests we have to win. The first one, obvs, and then when the MAGA Qanuts start screaming and cheating like motherfuckers. THAT is the one we need all hands on deck for because there’s no framework, no precedent for it. And in a lot of states the officials are primed and ready to destroy Democracy for their demented, flatulent, rapist god-emperor.
So there's a chance that Democrats could win a supermajority in the Senate and Congress?
If people say fuck it and vote instead of just shrugging it off?
Yes, a huge chance.
Usually a good sign.
Absolutely. But the polling, news, etc is meaningless.
Everybody needs to go out and vote, and make sure they're registered.
It's not a poll. In fact, new voters (like these) don't show up in oolls.
You know what I meant, relax
I know what you're saying. Everyone needs to get out and vote, no matter how many positive news articles come out and no matter how "easy" it seems. We need to win by a landslide.
Thank you, I'm glad somebody understands.
Sure, I read your mind.
I was very clearly referencing the post. You didn't need to read my mind.
It's insane that in the worlds largest and most powerful democracy, you need to complete a manual process to be able to vote in an election
"If our votes had any real power, it would be illegal!"
--Britta Perry
But seriously...go vote.
They make it as difficult as possible for anyone not in the male-rich-white categories, it's intentional. Last election in 100F Georgia they declared handing out water to people in line was political influence and illegal.
If the right wing is trying to take away your vote, you know they're scared of you voting.
Meanwhile, I get a voter card in the mail automatically when I am eligable to vote in in an election, if I want to prevote or vote by mail I can do that, and if i want to change my prevote or mail vote, I can go to the polling office on election day and vote again.
This will mean that my pre/mail vote will be discarded and destroyed unopened when it is noted that I have voted on election day.
That is by design so the “right” people vote. Which coincides with the right trying to make it harder to vote.
The US isn't a true democracy.
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