It would basically be a suicide for ASML to go along with this. Same for companies like Micron in Japan that have something like 40% of their sales going to China. The US is asking its vassals to jump on the sword here, and that just might be too big an ask. Losing sales in China alone is an existential threat, but it gets worse because now China will double down on domestic production. Once that gets ramped up, we'll see Chinese companies compete on the global market in a few years.

The best case scenario for western at that point will be that the west is going to ban all tech from China, but that's still going to be a tiny market compared to what they had before. That means Chinese companies will be bringing in a lot more profits, and that will translate into doing more R&D. So, we'll be seeing Chinese tech increasingly pull ahead of the west I expect.