answered above.
I wanted to know what you know and I don't. If rationalists are all scammers and not genuinely trying to be, per the name 'lesswrong' in their view of reality, what's your model of reality. What do you know? So far unfortunately I haven't seen anything. Sneer club's "reality model" seems to be "whatever the mainstream average person knows + 1 physicist", and it exists to make fun of the mistakes of rationalists and I assume ignores any successes if there are any.
Which is fine, I guess? Mainstream knowledge is probably usually correct. It's just that I already know it, there's nothing to be learned here.
I appreciated this post because it never occurred to me that the "thumb might be on the scales" for the "rules for discourse" that seems to be the norm around the rat forms. I personally ignore most of it, however, the "ES" rat phrase is simply saying, "I know we humans are biased observers, this is where I'm coming from". If the topic were renewable energy and I was the 'head of extraction at BP', you can expect that whatever I have to say is probably biased against renewable energy.
My other thought reading this was : what about the truth. Maybe the mainstream is correct about everything. "Sneer club" seems to be mostly mainstream opinions. That's fine I guess but the mainstream is sometimes wrong about issues that have been poorly examined or near future events. The collective opinions of everyone don't really price in things that are about to happen, even if it's obvious to experts. For example, the mainstream opinion on covid was usually lagging several weeks behind Zvi's posts on lesswrong.
Where I am going with this is you can point out bad arguments on my part, but I mean in the end, does truth matter? Like are we here to score points on each other or share what we think reality is or will in the very near future be?
To be clear, maybe you will be unimpressed with this, scale matters. I said in the above text "10 times current industrial output. Within 17 years RMR, robots making robots.". If you already priced that in, ok, that's an acceptable position, but the magnitude of a singularity matters, not just that it's happening.
And just to be clear, for one to be "lost in the AI religion", the claims have to be false, correct? We will not see the things I mentioned within the timeframe I gave (7 years, 17 years, and implicitly if there is not immediate progress towards the nearer deadline within 1 year it's not going to happen).
Google's Gemini will not be multimodal, be capable of learning to do tasks by reinforcement learning to human level, right? Robotics foundation models will not work.
Serious answer not from yudnowsky: the AI doesn't do any of that. It helps people cheat on their homework, write their code and form letters faster, and brings in revenue. AI owner uses the revenue and buys gpus. With the GPUs they make the AI better. Now it can do a bit more than before and then they buy more GPUs and theoretically this continues until the list of tasks the AI can do includes "most of the labor in a chip fab" and GPUs become cheap and then things start to get crazy.
Same elementary school logic but I mean this is how a nuke works.
Just I think to summarize your beliefs: rationalists are wrong about a lot of things and assholes. And also the singularity (which predates yuds existence) is not in fact possible by the mechanism I outlined.
I think this is a big crux here. It's one thing if its a cult around a false belief. It's kind of a problem to sneer at a cult if the core S of it happens to be a true law of nature.
Or an analogy. I think gpt-4 is like the data from the Chicago pile. That data was enough to convince the domain experts then a nuke was going to work to the point they didn't test Fat Man, you believe not. Clearly machine generality is possible, clearly it can solve every problem you named including, with the help of humans, ordering every part off digikey and loading the pick and place and inspecting the boards and building the wire harnesses and so on.
Just to be clear, you can build your own telescope now and see the incoming spacecraft.
Right now you can go task GPT-4 with solving a problem about equal to undergrad physics, let it use plugins, and it will generally get it done. It's real.
Maybe this is the end of the improvements, just like maybe the aliens will not actually enter orbit around earth.
It's 8 instances and the MoE architecture is a little more complex than that.
1, 2 : since you claim you can't measure this even as a thought experiment, there's nothing to discuss 3. I meant complex robotic systems able to mine minerals, truck the minerals to processing plants, maintain and operate the processing plants, load the next set of trucks, the trucks go to part assembly plants, inside the plant robots unload the trucks and feed the materials into CNC machines and mill the parts and robots inspect the output and pack it and more trucks...culminating in robots assembling new robots.
It is totally fine if some human labor hours are still required, this cheapens the cost of robots by a lot.
- This is deeply coupled to (3). If you have cheap robots, if an AI system can control a robot well enough to do the task as well as a human, obviously it's cheaper to have robots do the task than a human in most situations.
Regarding (3) : the specific mechanism would be AI that works like this:
Millions of hours of video of human workers doing tasks in the above domain + all video accessible to the AI company -> tokenized compressed description of the human actions -> llm like model. The llm like model thus is predicting "what would a human do". You then need a model to transform the what to robotic hardware that is built differently than humans, and this is called the "foundation model": you use reinforcement learning where actual or simulated robots let the AI system learn from millions of hours of practice to improve on the foundation model.
The long story short of all these tech bro terms is robotic generality - the model will be able to control a robot to do every easy or medium difficulty task, the same way it can solve every easy or medium homework problem. This is what lets you automate (3), because you don't need to do a lot of engineering work for a robot to do a million different jobs.
Multiple startups and deepmind are working on this.
Having trouble with quotes here **I do not find likely that 25% of currently existing occupations are going to be effectively automated in this decade and I don’t think generative machine learning models like LLMs or stable diffusion are going to be the sole major driver of that automation. **
- I meant 25% of the tasks, not 25% of the jobs. So some combination of jobs where AI systems can do 90% of some jobs, and 10% of others. I also implicitly was weighting by labor hour, so if 10% of all the labor hours done by US citizens are driving, and AI can drive, that would be 10% automation. Does this change anything in your response?
No. Even if Skynet had full control of a robot factory, heck, all the robot factories, and staffed them with a bunch of sleepless foodless always motivated droids, it would still face many of the constraints we do. Physical constraints (a conveyor belt can only go so fast without breaking), economic constraints (Where do the robot parts and the money to buy them come from? Expect robotics IC shortages when semiconductor fabs’ backlogs are full of AI accelerators), even basic motivational constraints (who the hell programmed Skynet to be a paperclip C3PO maximizer?)
- I didn't mean 'skynet'. I meant, AI systems. chatGPT and all the other LLMs are an AI system. So is midjourney with controlnet. So humans want things. They want robots to make the things. They order robots to make more robots (initially using a lot of human factory workers to kick it off). Eventually robots get really cheap, making the things humans want cheaper and that's where you get the limited form of Singularity I mentioned.
At all points humans are ordering all these robots, and using all the things the robots make. An AI system is many parts. It has device drivers and hardware and cloud services and many neural networks and simulators and so on. One thing that might slow it all down is that the enormous list of IP needed to make even 1 robot work and all the owners of all the software packages will still demand a cut even if the robot hardware is being built by factories with almost all robots working in it.
**I just think the threat model of autonomous robot factories making superhuman android workers and replicas of itself at an exponential rate is pure science fiction. **
- So again that's a detail I didn't give. Obviously there are many kinds of robotic hardware, specialized for whatever task they do, and the only reason to make a robot humanoid is if it's a sexbot or otherwise used as a 'face' for humans. None of the hardware has to be superhuman, though obviously industrial robot arms have greater lifting capacity than humans. Just to give a detail what the real stuff would look like : most robots will be in no way superhuman in that they will lack sensors where they don't need it, won't be armored, won't even have onboard batteries or compute hardware, will miss entire modalities of human sense, cannot replicate themselves, and so on. It's just hardware that does a task, made in factory, and it takes many factories with these machines in it to make all the parts used.
think:
BrickedKeyboard
joined 1 year ago
Nail on the head. Especially on the internet/'tech bro' culture. All my leads at work also have such a, "extreme OCD" kinda attitude. Sorry if you feel offended emotionally, I didn't mean it.
The rest of your post is ironically very much something that Eliezer posits a superintelligence would be able to do. Or from the anime Death Note. I use a few words or phrases, you analyze the shit out of them and try to extract all the information you can and have concluded all this stuff like
opening gambit
“amongst friends”
hiding all sorts of opinions behind a borrowed language
guff about “discovering reality”
real demands as “getting with the right programme”,
allegedly, scoring points “off each other”
Off each other” was another weasel phrase
you know that at least at first blush you weren’t scoring points off anyone
See everything you wrote above is a possibly correct interpretation of what I wrote. It's like the english lit analysis after the author's dead. Eliezer posits a superintelligence could use this kind of analysis to convince operators with admin authority to break the rules, or L in death note uses this to almost catch the killer.
It's also all false in this case. (it's also why a superintelligence probably can't actually do this) I've been on the internet long enough to know it is almost impossible to convince someone of anything, unless they already were willing and you just link some facts they didn't know about. So my gambit actually something very different.
Do you know how you get people to answer a question on the internet? To post something that's wrong*. And it clearly worked, there's more discussion on this thread than this entire forum in several pages, maybe since it was created.
*ironically in this case I posted what I think is the correct answer but it disagrees with your ontology. If I wanted lesswrongers to comment on my post I would need a different OP.