I think that your northern arrow is a bit too ambitious, a more realistic scenario for the upcoming few months is that Russia consolidates the eastern portion of Kupiansk and don't cross the Oskol River. They would then push down the Oskol until Borova and collapse the whole Oskol front. A latter stage would be pushing down from Russian territory towards Veliki Burluk and then down the western parts of the Oskol again until Kupiansk proper, mostly to keep supply lines open and avoid a repeat of late 2022 where they overextended into the Kharkov countryside. Vovchansk is way too valuable as a firebag where they can keep FABbing good Ukrainian units, and there's too much open exposed ground there. Ukrainian units in Kharkov are also still well-equipped and not as exhausted as in the Donbass, Russia can't risk too much there.

Two unrelated thoughts:

1. Trump's batshit crazy cabinet actually proves that voting Trump was the correct accelerationist position. If you wanted to accelerate the downfall of American hegemony and the weakening of American institutions by appointing the biggest dumbasses on the planet, then you got your wish with this 2nd Trump admin. I sympathize with Americans comrades, but chickens come home to roost like the great martyr Malcolm X said.

2. Russians actually entered deep into Kupiansk, I can't believe my eyes. Actually insane development, I didn't expect this at all so quickly honestly. It says a lot about the state of Ukrainian defences at this point. The story of Kupiansk is very interesting and serves as a good blueprint of the future of how Ukrainian territories will be integrated into Russia. Russia took over Kupiansk without a fight in February 2022, because the mayor was an intelligent man who spared the city from unnecessary bloodshed by calling the Russian command and telling them that they're free to enter the city without needlessly destroying infrastructure and civilian life. Civilians stayed, got their wages from Moscow, repairs were done quickly, civilians didn't leave, schools switched to Russian which the population already spoke perfectly, and that angered western media so much. When the Ukrainians took back the city in September 2022, mass arrests took place and sob stories were planted in media. The city was turned into a military hellhole by the AFU and most civilians had to flee. Russia kinda stabbed those people in the back during that disastrous period, but that's another discussion.

these are the people that lecture you about anti-semitism and racism

Just a few random thoughts about Russian strategy and current short term goals in Ukraine. I've been religiously following this war since the first few days and I guess like many of you nerds here, one begins to sort of develop an understanding of military affairs after consuming so much content in a short period. My analysis of the current South Donetsk offensive is that it is the most coherent and well-executed campaign since the start of the war. Previous long-term Russian and Ukrainian offensives were like separate islands of small gains, never joining together into one single front that drastically collapses an entire part of the front. Ukraine for example during their 2023 summer offensive attacked in three different directions, south of Orikhiv, west of Bakhmut, and south of Velika Novosilka. All those fronts never had a realistic chance of actually linking up, as they were too far from each other and there was never a real coherent "what happens next" plan. Same with the Russian offensive in the start of the war. They attacked near Kiev, near Kharkov, from the South and north of the old LPR territory, but the first two fronts could never realistically collapse an entire sector and link up to be one continuous front with supply lines entirely located in the captured zones. Even Bakhmut was the same, Russia made a dent in the frontline, but the lack of offensives in Siversk and Toretsk meant that Russia couldn't collapse an entire sector and straighten out the line again, so they only took the city and some territory around it.

Their current southern offensive is different though, with three big arrows that are actually threatening the entire South Donetsk sector for Ukraine. An advance of a few km from each direction now is lethal for the AFU. They would lose one of the most fortified sectors of the front, and escape into open fields with no fortifications all the way to Pavlograd. According to a map of fortifications that I saw last week, the whole section from Kurakhovo to the centre of Dnipro Oblast has barely any defensible ground, and the opening of that sector for Russian troops means that they will be able to outflank Ukraine's north-south trench systems in Zaporozhye, and the east-west systems in fortified central Donetsk. 2025 will be extremely decisive for this war if Trump doesn't pull off a 4D chess peace agreement.

Some Mozambique questions that I have on my mind after recently watching a vlog by a Palestinian-Jordanian vlogger who was in Maputo.

1. How anti-imperialist is FRELIMO these days and how come that they seem mostly kinda hated by the locals?

2. How prevalent is drug use and general crime in the country? There seems to be crazy amounts of drug users in some neighborhoods and even the metal car logo thingy in front of cars get stolen and sold in criminal markets that are semi-allowed in the country.

3. Has FRELIMO achieved some success in terms of addressing widespread poverty and living conditions in the slums? The situation seemed horrible from what I saw in the video.

4. How deep is Portuguese colonial penetration these days? We know that the French never really left the colonies despite the independence of the colonies. What's the situation with Portuguese imperialism?

Our gigachad is still being based as hell

This hot dude threw one of the Israeli hooligan fascists in the river. Happy he's on our side, we need more hot dudes with winner energy.

This will be the ground invasion of Lebanon megathread. May God protect everyone. My aunt and her little kids are on their way to the Syrian border now, the plan is that they make their way to Damascus by tomorrow and then stay with my cousin outside of Damascus. Plan B is that they make it to Damascus then register their names with one of the Iraqi refugee settling programs then go to Iraq which will be safer and the kids can actually go to school there without any bureaucratic nightmares. They're resettling Lebanese families in the pilgrim hotels outside of Karbala and Najaf, so that sounds like a more manageable life than my cousin's farm in the Damascus countryside.

Waiting for a response for any message in the family group chat right now is fucking torture, I literally can't deal with it anymore. I've sent my wife and the kid to her mom's for a few days, they can't see me and my dad like this. The two hours it took for my uncle to see the message and respond today were absolute hell, fuck this life. My aunt has little kids no older than 14, what if something happens. I've called my cousin from my mom's side who has a little farm outside of Damascus in Syria, he can take in my dad's family from Beirut, but how the fuck will they even leave with this situation, and my cousin is already dirt poor, how will he feed them. Too many thoughts spinning, nowhere to scream them out, nowhere to go and nothing to do, I almost wish I was there.

It has officially started, no words can describe the feeling in my heart right now. I have lots to say to Iran and the Axis, but this is not the time nor place. May God keep everyone home in Lebanon safe and strengthen their resolve. It has felt inevitable for months now, but I hate that we're so close to winter with how cold it gets in Lebanon. My aunties in Beirut started gathering supplies a few days ago, they have plenty of canned goods and stuff like rice stored now. My stubborn communist uncle was a "nothing ever happens guy" though so we're grilling him in the family group chat now. My cousin is home in Beirut now, we were worried for him because he works in Tyre which will most likely be pulverised by the Zionists. May God give us the chance to witness the total destruction of this cancerous entity.

Two days ago, on the first day of the Islamic month of Muharram, my son was born. The little fucker busted out of my wife a few weeks too early, but he's finally here. We left the hospital a few hours ago after two days of medical checks and both he and my wife are now peacefully sleeping while I'm writing. I won the naming battle and we settled on a traditional, but cool name in my very biased opinion. I'm now Abu Hassan, which sounds unreal, because how the hell am I a father lol. Now the real battle starts, I cannot do the same mistakes that Pete Buttigieg's father did and accidentally make him a liberal. Maybe in 16 years or so, you'll have Hassan LargePenis posting a VR interactive three dimensional chad n cuck ranking in the news mega about the slow Russian progress in the Central European front of WW3. Thank you all in advance for the well wishes!