"is it me, driveby poster, that is wrong? no, it must be everyone else who knows the sub that's wrong"

“no no you don’t get it, you’re floating it wrong”

your lack of situational awareness is alarming. stop driving, grab a coffee, put your feet up, and take a moment to actually fucking look at what you replied to

it may help

no this was the actual fiat value

the ftx fraud is fucking wild. everything about it is insane.

previously, presently (this thread). also:

I regret to inform you that Trace is hate-reading awful.systems

I lack any concrete evidence, but wouldn't it just be fucking hilarious

"I just think it's really unfair for my friends and donors to have to feel this uncomfortable because ..."

aaaah, the language of the complicit and the vile. how I loathe thee.

"a hbd denial movement" sure is a hell of a turn of phrase for "oh fuck. maybe they don't like our weird racist shit, quick everyone PANIC STATIONS"

As a mild tangent off this, just how many fucking things these dipshits have infected infuriates me. One of the most prominent ways I can think of is Star Trek Discovery, which in 3 different phases/places tried to be oh so edgy by riding the horses of musk praise, ai panic, and a variant of the christian futurist eschatology

Even in the very moment of seeing it they were jarring experiences. It’s going to age so, so badly.

None of this please

the kids have to thunderdome it out for recognition, and then they have to pay for the photos with their own money that they earned in their weekend jobs (you know, the ones they get to do after their homejobs all week). just like in a perfectly normal family!

everything in that "why we failed" breakdown is a work of art each to itself. babbie's first interaction with the real world each and every one of 'em

ooooookay longpost time

first off: eh wtf, why is this on sneerclub? kinda awks. but I'll try give it a fair and honest answer.

First, let me say that what broke me from the herd at lesswrong was specifically the calls for AI pauses.

look, congrats on breaking out, but uh... you're still wearing the prison jumpsuit in the grocery store and that's why people are looking at you weirdly

"yay you got out" but you got only half the reason right

take some time and read this

This seems deeply flawed

correct

But I do think advanced AI is possible

one note here: "plausible" vs "possible" are very divergent paths and likelihoods

in the Total Possible Space Of All Things That Might Ever Happen, of course it's possible, but so are many, many other things

it seems like the problems current AI can’t solve, like robotics, continuous learning, module reuse - the things needed to reach a general level of capabilities and for AI to do many but not all human jobs - are near future

eh. this ties back to my opener - you're still too convinced about something on essentially no grounded basis other than industry hype-optimism

I can link deepmind papers with all of these, published in 2022 or 2023.

look I don't want to shock you but that's basically what they get paid to do. and (perverse) incentives apply - of course goog isn't just going to spend a couple decabillion then go "oh shit, hmm, we've reached the limits of what this can do. okay everyone, pack it in, we're done with this one!", they're gonna keep trying to milk it to make some of those decabillions back. and there's plenty of useful suckers out there

And if AI can be general and control robots, and since making robots is a task human technicians and other workers can do, this does mean a form of Singularity is possible. Maybe not the breathless utopia by Ray Kurzweil but a fuckton of robots.

okay this is a weird leap and it's borderline LW shittery so I'm not going to spend much effort on it, but I'll give you this

it doesn't fucking matter.

even if we do somehow crack even the smallest bit of computational sentience, the plausibility of rapid acting self-reinforcing runaway self-improvement on such a thing is basically nil. we're 3 years down the line on the Evergreen getting stuck in the suez and fabs shutting down (with downstream orders being cancelled) and as a result of it a number of chips are still effectively unobtanium (even if and when you have piles and piles of money to throw at the problem). multiple industries, worldwide, are all throwing fucking tons of money at the problem to try recover from the slightest little interruption in supply (and like, "slight", it wasn't even like fabs burned down or something, they just stopped shipping for a while)

just think of the utter scope of doing robotics. first you have to solve a whole bunch of design shit (which by itself involves a lot of from-principles directed innovation and inspiration and shit). then you have to figure out how to build the thing in a lab. then you have to scale it? which involves ordering thousounds of parts and SKUs from hundred of vendors. then find somewhere/somehow to assemble it? and firmware and iteration and all that shit?

this isn't fucking age of ultron, and tony's parking-space fab isn't a real thing.

this outcome just isn't fucking likely on any nearby horizon imo

So I was wondering what the people here generally think

we generally think the people who believe this are unintentional suckers or wilful grifters. idk what else to tell you? thought that was pretty clear

There are “boomer” forums I know of where they also generally deny AI is possible anytime soon, claim GPT-n is a stochastic parrot, and make fun of tech bros as being hypesters who collect 300k to edit javascript and drive Teslas*.

wat

I also have noticed that the whole rationalist schtick of “what is your probability” seems like asking for “joint probabilities”, aka smoke a joint and give a probability.

okay this gave me a momentary chuckle, and made me remember JRPhttp://darklab.org/jrp.txt (which is a fun little shitpost to know about)

from here, answering your questions as you asked them in order (and adding just my own detail in areas where others may not already have covered something)

1. no, not a fuck, not even slightly. definitely not with the current set of bozos at the helm or techniques as the foundation or path to it.

2. no, see above

3. who gives a shit? but seriously, no, see above. even if it did, perverse incentives and economic pressures from sweeping hand motion all this other shit stands a very strong chance to completely fuck it all up 60 ways to sunday

4. snore

5. if any of this happens at some point at all, the first few generations of it will probably look the same as all other technology ever - a force-multiplier with humans in the loop, doing things and making shit. and whatever happens in that phase will set the one on whatever follows so I'm not even going to try predict that

*“epistemic status”: I uh do work for a tech company, my job title is machine learning engineer, my girlfriend is much younger than me and sometimes fucks other dudes, and we have 2 Teslas…

....okay? congrats? is that fulfilling for you? does it make you happy?

not really sure why you mentioned the gf thing at all? there's no social points to be won here

closing thoughts: really weird post yo. like, "5 yud-steered squirrels in a trenchcoat" weird.