Despite Mr. Davis' commitment to verbose apologetics, his faith movement is based around the devotional practice of wandering around pulling spurious probability estimates out of one's ass
A recent innovation on this practice, among the degenerate indulgence-retailers of the movement, is the posting of graphs showing hopelessly low-liquidity betting pools on prediction market websites
Now wait just a goddamn minute, I thought the whole schtick here was that our gracious correspondent is better than anyone else at evaluating situations that are relatively rare but nonetheless highly consequential