I'm running several opensource alternatives for clients (rocketchat, prosody, matrix) and I've transitioned privately from telegram and XMPP to matrix. the pushback from users is immense, they find every possible reason and excuse to stick with the messengers they're used to and use "the new stuff" for the bare minimum.

privately it's ~~easy~~ easier, that's the only way you can get ahold of me, so if you need/want me, that's where I am at. for a short while tried to make it work with signal, but a) the phone number thing is a deal breaker (usernames get me only halfway there) and b) I switch and use multiple devices often and that thing is downright hostile towards people who own/use > 2 devices.

bear in mind, I'm in a dictatorial position. they have to do what I say and even with that, it's an uphill battle. it doesn't help that the stuff they're now forced to use has subpar to downright dogshit UX.

the new, shiny, superawesome, superfast element x... is crap. I thought Signal was crap - this is another level. I don't mean for me, it's crap from the point of casual users, they are coming from the super polished world of telegram and imessage and twitter and friends and everything about this is off-putting. a lot of them need help setting this up, especially if it's a multi-device scenario.

the immediate future looks bleak and I don't see an important development on the horizon that would change any of this. but, that's how telegram spread, early adopters switching to it and promoting it and dragging normies along. let's hope for a repeat.