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this post was submitted on 15 Aug 2023
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So a question from a non-American …. How likely is any of this to lead to actual conviction/incarceration?
What’s the feeling in the country? Is this all just likely to be brushed off?
We are in uncharted waters at this point. I don't think anyone could really answer this question with certainty.
Fair point!
I’ve been pretty much shocked by a lot of the things that have happened in the last decade or so … kind of like “nobody would ever ever have predicted that, before ….”
If you look at our history, there has always been a sort of club where those involved in wrongdoing end up being shielded from real accountability. There are no other examples of a president being criminally prosecuted for anything.
People say that is because the founders never imagined that a criminal would be elected president, but given the lack of mention of slavery until the 13th amendment I have a feeling that's not quite the case.
Most of them, Trumps guilt is almost assured. However if he elected president again, he can pardon himself for his own crimes.
These Georgia charges are very likely to land a conviction, at least on som of them. And as president trump cannot pardon any of these crimes.
I personally doubt we will see any jail time for any of them. Maybe a house arrest or something of that nature.
RICO has minimum jail time of 5 years.
Oh man, is that minimum 5 years for each charge? Any more than 10 years and he'll die in prison.
He should end up in Gen Pop like all the rest of us. No more privilege for the rich.
Terrifying that we’re in this state tbh. Those in power really do just get away with it …
He can only pardon himself from federal charges. Since these are at the state level I believe it would require the governor to pardon him
Not in Georgia! The governor can’t pardon people. There’s a special panel that decides pardons.
Also, it's quite possible he's headed for pre-trial detention, because he's incapable of keeping his mouth shut. He keeps spouting off attacking the judge and witnesses, and can't help but release privileged evidence to social media. If so, it'd be all but impossible for him to run a campaign.
House arrest with no internet would be enough for me. Probably the worst punishment trump could get tbh
Take his golf clubs, his reputation and his adoring crowds.
But let him see the world move on without him.
It’s enough to break a man like trump.
I suppose the fear is we will get a jury, in Georgia, where I suppose there is a high chance to get a MAGA fanatic, and you only need one asshole to sabotage the entire trial. This is always the risk with all jury selections, and the lawyers are very aware of this when they do voir dire
I think this one has the potential to stick. Not just because it's a state charge that can be easily pardoned. But I think it tells a story that even Conservatives in the South can relate to: a bunch of elites from the North storming in and acting like they're the ones in charge.
IANAL
I put conviction for some felony at 99% going to real prison at 1%. There are so much that can go into this. Years of appeals, pardons, arguments for house arrest, etc.