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this post was submitted on 05 Jan 2025
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Please elaborate.
This paragraph from the Wikipedia article on quantum computing lays it out neatly:
Emphasis mine. I wouldn’t put it past tech bros to sell probability functions within existing computer architecture as a form of “quantum computing” and shake down VC idiots for the startup money.
A guy I went to undergrad with is doing research on quantum computing for optimization algorithms, and afik it's really exciting stuff to solve non-linear problems regular computers take a really long time and resources to do, like some kinds you'd find in a command economy, or in metallurgy or chemical plants. But he's been the first one to tell me that quantum computing has very specific applications, and that it's very difficult to see any uses for it outside of those contexts, so it's unlikely to be a game changer in say, user-facing applications.
Of course someone is going to use regular probabilistic algorithms it to make "Uber but for forecasting when your dog is pooping" and call it quantum, because your dog is simultaneously pooping and not pooping at all times.
I don't blame people for not seeing the potential of quantum computing... but it's absolutely not just a grift. Computing on the atomic level like this is potentially one of the greatest achievements humankind can achieve. There's a reason China alone has invested over $50B in this technology.
Edit: I see what you're saying now... that the bros will fake or approximate quantum tech for investment.
There's also a popular misconception that quantum computing represents a straight improvement over classical computing for all problems. That's just not so; it's really only useful for very specific kinds of computation. I would expect to see a lot of grifts trying to sell people on quantum algorithms to do things that classical algorithms already do perfectly well.
While this is true, this sentiment is sort of overcorrecting in the opposite direction imo, since these quantum algorithms have the potential to be insanely useful. Think accurately simulating particle interactions and understanding the fabric of the universe level of useful.
Oh they'll absolutely be revolutionary for the things they're good at. My point is just that most people--including virtually all oligarchs--don't have any idea how QM works, much less quantum computing. Just like with generative AI, the fact that the underlying technology is so poorly understood by most people creates a huge space for grifting.
Yes, I agree with you (while simultaneously being really excited for the real advancements in this space).
It sounds like a very solid grift, because so many tech bros want to be seen as smart by understanding physics, yet their understanding of quantum computing is "like trying every possible random result at once and picking the true one." Which is wrong, but to admit it's wrong they'd have to give up their self image as a smart physics-understander.
While I don't disagree, I'd argue that we're guilty of this kind of thing too when we let our (correct) economic criticisms of capitalism cloud the materialist lens for determining what makes for good science.