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Federal Polls 16/2/2025 388 Canada
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this post was submitted on 17 Feb 2025
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Here’s an overview of how these models work:
Polling companies release polls, 338 aggregates them and assigns rankings to polls based on previous election outcomes. The idea is pollers who were more accurate get higher weighting, and less accurate polls get lower weightings.
Once polls are aggregated they’re used to predict the riding level outcomes.
They simulate dozens/hundreds of potential outcomes based on the polling probabilities.
High polling might not result in a favourable split in ridings in FPTP.