78
Mainstreet polling, updated Mar 24
(lemmy.ca)
| Party | Seats | % | Change in Seats | Majority Probability | Minority Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 192 | 44.4% | +39 | 93.2% | 6.3% |
| Conservative | 118 | 37.8% | -1 | 0.1% | 4.1% |
| Bloc | 26 | 6.3% | -7 | 0% | 0% |
| New Democrat | 6 | 6.7% | -19 | N/A | N/A |
| Green | 1 | 1.4% | -1 | N/A | N/A |
| People's | 0 | 2.7% | -2.2% | N/A | N/A |
I think it's more about this moment than people giving up on the NDP long term. It's probably more ABC than anti-NDP. Many see PP as a threat to the country, or least much less able to address the current crisis, so they're aligning with the best chance to defeat him.
It's ABC, but it's also the result of Singh. NDP was neck and neck with Liberals when the Liberals were polling poorly, which could've been the NDP's chance. If Singh still doesn't get replaced after this election, I don't think the NDP is going to fare well.
I'd be surprised if Singh stayed on if they do actually lose official party status. Realistically though, they were close when the Libs were facing an historic, crushing loss. They were never anywhere near a position to form government based on polling.