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NASA doubles odds of Moon hitting near-Earth asteroid.
(science.nasa.gov)
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this post was submitted on 05 Apr 2025
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I made a calculation a few weeks ago with the data available at the time, which put the odds at 1.94%. That same calculation now gives 3.7%, so I guess I did a pretty good job.
Fingers crossed it ends up impacting, that would be quite the sight to behold.