I made a calculation a few weeks ago with the data available at the time, which put the odds at 1.94%. That same calculation now gives 3.7%, so I guess I did a pretty good job.
Fingers crossed it ends up impacting, that would be quite the sight to behold.
Thank you for your service Mr moon ๐ซก๐
Don't look up
The way things are going that may be the preferred scenario.
Experts [โฆ] have updated 2024 YR4โs chance of impacting the Moon on Dec. 22, 2032 from 1.7% as of late February to 3.8% based on the Webb data and observations from ground-based telescopes.
Me before reading those stats: ๐ฏ
Me after reading those stats: ๐ฎ
Yeah 3.8% is a huge chance in asteroid collision terms. Exciting stuff.
Someone please ask Nasa to stop, we need our moon!
I once had a dream I was swimming in a river, and when I looked up at the night sky I saw something impact the Moon and shatter it, sending chunks down to Earth's surface.
Time to get that doomsday hype train rolling again for 2024 YR4! I don't even know how large an object would need to be in order to do something like that, probably larger than this is. I guess it'll just have to remain a dream, sigh.
Even if the moon was shattered, most of the pieces would probably just continue in their orbit.
Is it big enough to cause any big debris to fall on Earth?
That would be so cool!
That's what you say now, but wait until all the Moon Hornets come out.
I donโt even have that one on my 2025 bingo card.
Like an angry space pinata
until it fucks with the world's tidal patterns
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