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this post was submitted on 14 May 2025
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The scary part is even on the surface, a meaningful reduction in housing prices would have pretty rough consequences for us economically. We've spent 40 years building our entire financial system to the point where the majority of the median citizen's net worth is in their home's equity. Seeing any short term devaluation of housing in a significant way would effectively be reducing the median citizens ability to retire.
Probably the best we can hope for is price stagnation and modest but consistent decreases in housing prices while we decouple our economy from the false growth of real estate.
Everyone needs one house. When you sell your house, you have to buy (or rent) another one. If the value of your house drops by the same amount as everyone else's, then you lost nothing.
In fact, you probably gained because if you plan to buy a more expensive house, you have to pay less.
The only people for whom the fall of housing prices would be negative are those that plan on having less houses. That is, you have multiple, and want to sell some.
The median citizen is no real state investor.
If you still have a mortgage on your home, you’ve lost a lot because you may no longer have equity to cover your mortgage. Which, probably not a huge deal if you actually plan to live in it and not treat it like a medium-term investment. But there can be a tangible loss there.
You have to pay that mortgage, it doesn't matter if your house can cover it or not.
What are you gonna do? Sell your house to pay off your mortgage? And then where do you live?
If you own a single house, the synchronized raise/fall of house prices only affect the speed at which you can "upgrade" to a more expensive home. So prices going down benefit you.