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this post was submitted on 21 Aug 2023
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This is kind of just something that krept into my mind but I think with a slowing birthrate that we may just end up with too many homes at some point in the next 25 years.
If you’re talking about the US, the slowing birthrate is compensated for by immigration. This is what drives immigration policy and why the US hasn’t fallen into the same demographic slump as Japan has, and China soon will.
Add to this that much of the tight housing market is driven by people around the world investing in US real estate. Some estimates are as high as 30% of homes sitting empty, held by foreign investors, just appreciating.
Between these two things, we are extremely far from being able to visualize too much housing. I hope we get there, though. Because it would fix the high pricing and allow us to demolish some of the oldest, shittiest housing which is only still around because the market is so nuts.
It'll probably even out as we may not have enough people to build them?
Perhaps, but in an energy-scarce world, who would be able to afford living in an old, inefficient house? I obviously hope to be wrong but increasing material price and labour might alone offset whatever price decrease the extra inventory of a decreasing population might bring. I hope to be wrong, ofc.
My old place was a cold, stone cottage and was a nightmare to keep heated.
The kitchen at one point was measuring 6°C and that was with the heating on in the winter.
We got out of there in December 2019 and I'm so glad we did, because with COVID, Brexit and the war, house prices went bananas, energy bills went through the roof and interest rates have increased massively.
We could never have afforded this place today. I really feel for young folks today, we bought our first home at 33 years old after years of saving and that was in the time of almost no interest - it would be impossible now.