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Russia Is Winning the Ukraine War and NATO Can’t Stop It
(nationalsecurityjournal.org)
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this post was submitted on 11 Jun 2025
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I see, that makes sense. I just have one more question: what about Ukraine, or more specifically, the Ukrainian people? It feels like they’re in a horrible situation: either die, or lose your state as a result of NATO’s war (and its inability to defend them). Are we just expected to add them to the endless list of victims of capitalism? And while I do believe that nation-states are ultimately a problem, losing yours at the hands of another power still feels awful.
This whole situation is just so messy, and while communist sort of agree on most things, there is no consensus here. Some don't support either, some want Ukraine to fend off Russia, some prefer Russia to defeat NATO and take Ukraine. Never have I seen so much division, and all make some pretty good points to me.
I mean, «This is an imperialist war. It shouldn't reguard us.», I see, logical. «Ukraine is just a proxy of the USA. It's better for it to he defeated. Russia also helps Burkina Faso, DPRK, and other communists around the world at least.», you're right! «Russia shouldn't have begun the war, and it's imperialism and irredentism. It's true that Ukraine is fascist, but it's the job of Ukraine's proletarians to overthrow it.», that's a good point too...
I am assuming that, Ukrainians are inevitable victims of capitalism, and if there was a strong disciplined national liberation movement of Ukraine from both NATO and Russia, we would support that, but since there is not, a NATO defeat that helpes an enemy of the West is the next best thing. Is that correct?
I apologize for the questions, I am trying to deprogram myself and see this matter a little more clearly.
Ukraine allowed itself to be used as a NATO proxy and the people of Ukraine are now paying the price for that. People of Ukraine allowed the west to overthrow their legitimate government and to install a fascist regime in its place.
The destiny of Ukraine is to serve as a warning for others going forward. It's important to clarify that NATO never had any intent to defend Ukraine. NATO used the people of Ukraine to fight Russia as a proxy.
It's also important to note that Ukraine was already in a civil war before Russia intervened. This lecture that Mearsheimer gave back in 2015 is an excellent primer on the subject. Mearsheimer is certainly not pro Russian in any sense, and a proponent of US global hegemony. First, here’s the demographic breakdown of Ukraine:
here’s how the election in 2004 went:
this is the 2010 election:
As we can clearly see from the voting patterns in both elections, the country is divided exactly across the current line of conflict. Furthermore, a survey conducted in 2015 further shows that there is a sharp division between people of eastern and western Ukraine on which economic bloc they would rather belong to:
The most likely outcome of the war is that Russia is going to absorb Russian majority parts of Ukraine that either actively wish to be part of Russia, or are neutral. Meanwhile, western Ukraine will be left as a problem for Europe to deal with.
As I noted earlier, it's not simply that Russia is an enemy of the west, but also that it's currently aligned with the global majority and unlike the west it is not hostile towards socialist states. I also think that both military defeat against Russia and economic defeat in the trade war with China will play a significant role in discrediting neoliberalism within the west. This will create opportunities for new ideas to emerge which is essential for any sort of a socialist movement in the west. I wrote about this dynamic here in more detail.
https://dialecticaldispatches.substack.com/p/the-stress-test-liberalism-never
This makes things much more clearer, thank you for explaining it to me!
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:
Despite Western claims, Russia is not prosecuting this war in the name of imperialism nor revanchism. You could say that irredentism was a factor, but only insomuch as ethnic Russians inhabit eastern & southern Ukraine and had been suffering persecution by US/Ukraine-backed fascists. The major factor was US/NATO expansion. Previously.