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(lemmy.ml)
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this post was submitted on 04 Jul 2025
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The 250 year thing is basically completely made up BS
Indeed. The empire you left to make your own with blackjack and hookers was nearly double that. If you want to be facetious too, then probably triple.
250 years is just a rough estimate. As an expert, what's the number you've arrived at?
It's straight up not a thing, there is no number of years which tends to correspond to the life expectancy of empires
We're talking about the average life expectancy of an empire. It's a fairly straightforward calculation if one has all the data ready.
Average out of which number? There has not been enough empires in human history to get any kind of valid statistical conclusion.
Also, the ancient egyptian empire lasted over 3k years, for you to get an average of 250y with such outlier you would need to include what, several 10y "empires", or divide empires by ruler. Which would then make the conversation moot since each US president would be a new "empire".
The claim comes from John Glubb, and he used this chart to make the average out of... 11 data points!?! While missing tons of other ancient empires that lasted thousands of years?!
This is the book where he makes such claim
So to answer your comment, yeah math is easy. Impossible to reach such average number with all the data though, given that it was made with a wildly incomplete and incorrect data...
No, not even close. The Egyptian Empire lasted from 1570 to 1069 BC.
No, there are others as I've already mentioned. The Changing World Order by Ray Dalio also arrives at the 250 year number. Cliodynamics and Structural-Demographic Theory suggests cycles of 200-300 years as well.
Why are you selectively choosing to consider only the "new kingdom" part of the whole thing? Overall it's from 3150 BC – 30 BC
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancient_Egypt
I can also reach to whatever conclusion if I decide to ignore what doesn't fit and modify what does to make it fit better. That's wrong...
You don't really know what you're talking about do you? Here, look at this: https://www.worldhistory.org/Egyptian_Empire/
It's not really that straightforward though, is it? Firstly is it a mean or a median average? What counts as an empire? When do we date the rise and fall of specific empires? These are not questions with straightforwards answers. Would Hitler's Germany count as an empire? How many Roman empires were there?
I wish liberals could actually read.
Hurrr librulz durrrrr. Fuck off.
I wish more people understood statistics. Did you learn about moments?
You're all worried about statistics and the poor guy can't even read.
What bit did you worry I hadn't read? Was it an answer you posted in another thread, perhaps, that you're talking about? I don't believe there was anything in my reply that suggested I hadn't comprehended anything relevant up to that point...
Do you count the Byzantine as separate or the same as Rome?
Your talking about structures comprising huge numbers of people across multiple generations. There is no clear "death". Just the gradual shifting from one set of conditions to another. Pick any line in the sand, declare it to be the "end" of an empire, and you'll still find people living under its rules, speaking the language, and using the currency well afterward.
Hell, look at Britain. No longer the globe-strangling power that they were, but it's still the same country with the same rules and government and money.
Good counter argument
Sure, we could also work out the average life expectancy of a mammal.
But, would it really be useful, predictive or meaningful, given the variety and variability of the conditions the data emerges from?
Yes. The average life expectancy of a human for instance is a useful statistic in healthcare, social services, financial and retirement planning, etc.
Yes, because of the relatively similar conditions and needs of humans
Something empires don't have!
Interesting... 😂
mammal, not human
It being an average number, pulled out of it's context, doesn't necessarily mean anything beyond just the average
Regardless, that is the number we are interested in.
Three
Add fiddy and we'll talk.