I think that is a pretty decent way of looking at it. Right now we are in a phase where being open is good. As China has shown you can make a lot of progress doing trade right now. But we will reach a point where they will need to put their walls up, and wait out the storm. I don't think the threat is the climate though. I think it's the desperation that the change will instill in other nations. China seems to be preparing to keep their region stable which is smart. Keep the desperation lower in your local area. Let neighbors act as a buffer. Youll see a lot of resource wars. Water wars. Lithium wars. etc. Because the nations that didnt prepare will try to take what they need by force. So the only AES state i really worry about is Cuba. It's isolated, and surrounded by potential enemies. It's climate situation is really bad too.

Laos, Vietnam, and the DPRK have China right there. China will keep that region pretty safe through it all. The further away from China you are the worse off you'll be. Because when the US decides to start looting the world very few places will be safe. You either want to be somewhere that doesn't have anything they'll want, or be somewhere that has nukes, or a nuclear ally to defend them.