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GPT 5 coming out today so that might be soon if it's a disappointment
I think it's going to have more to do with the fact that none of these AI companies are making any money. They're lighting mountains of venture capital money on fire with nothing to show for it. I don't think the bubble will pop until rent is due.
I really don’t think the profit margins on AI atm are important for capital.
AI is the golden goose for capital, it’s the promised land, valhalla…a cataclysmic event for life on earth materially and existentially speaking. The promise of AI is the abolition of the most cumbersome cost of every business: labor.
Imagine the circling of wagons every time a sucdem gets publicity, but like 4000 times worse, they will coalesce around this development and they will absolutely dump all of their wealth to achieve this promise, no matter how unfeasible and illusory it is
For the time being, sure, yeah they will. But how long will this go on for without satisfactory, proven results?
So far, while there has been some labour replaced by AI (for example, with very straight-forward and simple jobs/tasks like reading audio books) it's been piecemeal at best. Some companies that have tried to replace their frontline support workers with AI have had to backtrack and hire back their human workers. Some companies that replaced their developers with AI generated code had to backtrack and hire engineers to figure out why their servers were running like ass - oh, whoops, the AI code was dogshit wrapped in cat shit!
The AI companies keep promising that "it will get better" and "we pinky swear we'll be profitable by 2030" and "this is just the beginning" but these empty promises can't go on forever, especially with the tens (hundreds?) of billions of dollars being lit on fire.