Once again im gonna have to disagree. You are right only if someone is used to windows. But many people ONLY use a phone or tablet these days. Gnome is much more familiar when coming from Android or iOS on a mobile platform. Since its more gesture based just like those are.

Especially among younger people i think the main OS will not be windows but Android. Just look at how Samsung is testing out Samsung Dex on their devices and how Chrome OS is moving to android. Windows is more of the productivity, and desktop OS now imo. For daily use like web browsing, media consumption, etc, Android will be more and more common.

If trends continue as they are i expect Linux to be dominant in the server space still, and to gain ground in the gaming space. Mainly as Valve comes out with more plug and play Linux based consoles, and other companies copy them.

Windows will likely remain dominant in the professional and productivity space. Since they cater to companies and allow lots of remote control options, and the ability to monitor employees.

Android will probably be dominant in the casual media consumption, and web browsing space.

Apple kind of does their own thing and so i dont consider them for this. They are in a bit of everything, but mainly focused in the US specifically. Other regions have a lot more Android presence. But just assume Apple has a piece of each pie too.

Personally i do not think Linux can or should compete with Windows in the corporate space. What companies want is control. That control comes at the cost of features, privacy, and autonomy for users. Microsoft is happy to give those up to make more money. The Linux community isnt, and thats a good thing.

So the areas we can probably peel away some market share are in KDE powered gaming desktops, gaming consoles on something like Steam OS or Bazzite, and in touch friendly portable media machines. 2-in-1 Gnome powered laptops. Thats the way i see it anyway.