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Incidentally, I've been saying that Russia would annex the productive eastern regions, leaving a rump state in western Ukraine that Europe would be forced to prop up with billions, or face a massive refugee crisis from the very start. The mainstream press has finally caught up. https://lemmygrad.ml/post/480378/348104

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[-] Commiejones@lemmygrad.ml 29 points 1 day ago

If EU didn't want a black hole on their border maybe they should have held up their end of the minsk agreements.

[-] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 23 points 1 day ago

Look a war with Russia was supposed to be a quick in and out adventure, 20 minutes tops. Nobody could've possibly predicted that Russia wouldn't just crumble like a house of cards when the west decided to blow really hard.

[-] huf@hexbear.net 13 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

look, that one time russia crumbled like a house of cards in ww1 immediately after germany fought them for like 3 years, and by gum we're going to try to recreate this until the end of time.

also, that one crumbling was a great success for the west. they really really loved having the soviet union emerge.

[-] cfgaussian@lemmygrad.ml 10 points 14 hours ago* (last edited 9 hours ago)

It's not so much WW1 they're looking at, it's 1991. They believe that they were responsible for defeating and shattering the USSR. They believe if they keep "containing", "overextending" and "pressuring" Russia it will eventually implode like the USSR did. Then they can repeat the wave of plunder and colonization that they enacted in the 1990s in Eastern Europe but this time across the entire corpse of the Russian Federation.

You have to remember that at the time, the international capitalist system itself had been in a deep crisis since the 1970s. The wave of neoliberalism in the 80s was a response to that crisis, a way to kick the can down the road just a little longer while hollowing out the social and economic base. They desperately needed that infusion of plunder that they got in the 90s, the expansion into new markets, new sources of cheap labor, newfound access to raw materials to exploit that were previously locked behind the iron curtain.

That allowed them to stave off the crisis for a good two decades, right up until the 2008 financial crisis.

But now, with the rise of China and the global south, they are in an even more desperate situation than ever before, hence the reckless urgency with which they are trying to recreate that 90s situation, to bail out the capitalist crisis in the West by getting their hands on the wealth, labor force and markets that they again lost their easy and cheap access to after Putin pulled Russia out of the 90s catastrophe.

If they don't succeed, then the Western capitalist system will have to begin to self-cannibalize. The US core will need to begin to consume the peripheral European vassal economies to keep the US's own system afloat. I believe that this process has already begun. The moment the US blew up Nordstream it became clear that this is what would happen.

[-] Maeve1@lemmygrad.ml 5 points 10 hours ago

Excellent analysis, thanks. I can't disagree.

[-] Darkcommie@lemmygrad.ml 17 points 1 day ago

Or that it would make china stronger well done Europe

[-] Assian_Candor@hexbear.net 19 points 1 day ago

Never trust a yankee

[-] cfgaussian@lemmygrad.ml 16 points 1 day ago

They thought they could make it a black hole for Russia. Russia played the Uno Reverse Card.

[-] Lenins_Dumbbell@lemmygrad.ml 11 points 20 hours ago

They didn't underestimate Russia, they VASTLY underestimated the Soviet Union. Russia is an industrial powerhouse because it inherited Soviet Union's legacy.

Europe failed to account for the fact that since their first defeat of Tsarist Russia, a socialist revolution happened that turned the country into a powerhouse that was on the path to surpassing the US. Even though it fell, a lot of its industries, workforce due to policy, and educational institutions remained and were inherited (even if they're slowly being devoured by capitalism). Russia was never going to go down easy.

All this without factoring in China which is now the leading global super power in everything but military bases around the world

[-] demerit@lemmygrad.ml 8 points 15 hours ago

Tsarist Russia, despite its later economical backwardness, was also a power in its own right. Germany fought WW1 because it feared Russia surpassing it, just as UK fought WW1 because the very same year germany's economy surpassed the british one (not including the dominions)

this post was submitted on 01 Dec 2025
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