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the Empire closes its fist on Iran as it makes final preparations to strike.
(thespectaclemag.substack.com)
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this post was submitted on 22 Jan 2026
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Practically 0. I don't think Iran is ever going to risk taking such action because they're trying to avoid any possible situation that paints them as acting illegally or aggressively. Striking a US vessel directly is pretty much guaranteeing a NATO invasion of their country.
Iran might not do so preemptivelly, but it would be really dumb of them not to sink it if they get attacked by the carriers, as letting them continue to function is leaving another base of the enemy standing, and they have already said they will strike the us' bases if they are attacked.
Even then I don't think they'd do it. At most they'll do retaliatory strikes on that one airbase in Qatar, and on some military infrastructure in Israel at most. They have always opted for this option because it's less escalatory then directly attacking the US.
That nuclear facility in Dimona ๐