US war on Iran | MEGATHREAD #2
(lemmygrad.ml)
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Analysis:
Anyone saying that this is the start of WW3 is full of shit. They are way overestimating the west's military potential. There will not be more fronts opened up in other continents because they lack the hardware to do so. This is not 1/2 or 1/3 of some other fraction of america's operational navy and air force. If america could have deployed more to the gulf they would have. The rest of their "deployable" forces are theoretical. 2 planes at 80% ready don't equal one plane. They say they have 11 aircraft carriers but only 1 showed up, one of them is full of shit in the Mediterranean and another is supposedly on its way a week late.
The assets used in Iran will have to be with drawn before a new front is opened. There won't be mass mobilizations or conscription like there were in the other world wars. (can you imagine how poorly that would go in western nations?) There will not be foreign troops deployed to liberate or defend allied nations. Russia and China will not get directly involved. (because they wont have to) Europe can't do much more than blow hot air. (except Greece and Turkey but they are more likely to go at each other then anyone else) American allies will only contribute a token amount to the war on Iran.
There may be many anti-imperialist wars close on the heels of this one but it won't be a world war.
SPECULATION: I also find it intersting how tepid the US is being with its especialy Naval Forces, It seems like any time the USS Abe Lincoln gets hit they pull it into a full retreat, and this is not what I would expect if they had even one other Carrer who they think could replace it. You cannot effectively wage a war, if you are unwilling to have any of your peices in any danger at all. Iran is able to force the movements of the Carier by threatening to hit it, significantly limiting its use
I'm inclined to agree. Part of my thought process is just the extent to which the world economy is interconnected. Already, just from how important Iran's positioning is in that, there could be major economic fallout as a result of sustained war in the region (like relating to oil). Opening up more fronts in a haphazard way would be over before it begins because of how it would wreck supply chains and the US, the one that is most likely to be aggressor in those fronts, is one of the more vulnerable to those supply chain issues because of how much it financialized its economy.
I don't think Trump and his admin actually wanted sustained war. I think they wanted smash and grab intimidation like Venezuela, but they picked the wrong country to fuck with this time and the empire is not what it once was to be able to go all out. Trump loves pretending like he's a peacemaker and prides himself on being a dealmaker as well (his "art of the deal" crap). Being the source of another world war is the opposite of that.
But the US admin is also in deep by now and too prideful to cower, so of course they're going to beat the drums about how ready they are to war and how strong they are.
If the US does expand the war to another front it will be among the stupidest things they have done.
Desperation leads to stupid actions!