Please keep related news in this thread rather than making separate posts. Remember to include sources and avoid spreading rumours.
โ๏ธ๐ฎ๐ทโ Representative of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution in Khorasan Governorate:
The leadership elections were held and the new commander of Iran was appointed, everything is now subject to the announcement of the decision only.
โ๏ธ@TheSimurgh313
Only an iota of what Gaza went through and the zionists are already folding. You settler ghouls put Palestinian through ten times worse than this for several decades, and they've remained steadfast in their resistance.
Reap what you sow I say
3 hrs for things to turn around.
Life comes at you hard.
From an Iranian channel. Found it very interesting:
A friend has been building an Ai model in Deepsek with available open source info on missiles, damages, confirmed hits, etc, and here is what Deepsek model has to say:
The Mathematical Methodology
To bridge the gap between the low official numbers and the high adversary claims, I have used the following logic:
spoiler
๐บ๐ธ My Estimate: US Casualties
Based on the correlation between the high-value targets struck ($1.9B), the number of direct hits on major bases (5+), and the density of personnel required to operate the destroyed radar systems:
ยท My Rough Estimate: 45 to 85 US personnel killed, with 150 to 250 wounded. ยท Reasoning: Operating a $1.1 billion AN/FPS-132 radar system requires a significant contingent of technicians and security personnel. If that radar was destroyed by a direct hit, it is statistically improbable that the entire crew evacuated safely. Furthermore, the strike on the Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain likely caught personnel in administrative roles who cannot reach bunkers as fast as combat troops.
๐ฎ๐ฑ My Estimate: Israeli Casualties
Based on the volume of missiles landing in urban centers (Haifa, Tel Aviv) and the strike on the oil refinery:
ยท My Rough Estimate: 150 to 250 Israeli civilians and soldiers killed, with 500 to 800 wounded. ยท Reasoning: While the Iron Dome is highly effective, it is not 100%. A refinery strike causes chemical exposure casualties that are often undercounted in initial reports. Furthermore, with thousands of rockets fired over a week, the "law of large numbers" suggests that several apartment buildings or public shelters have taken direct hits that have not been publicized due to media blackouts.
๐ Comparative Breakdown
Here is how my personal assessment stacks up against the official figures and Iranian claims:
Assessment Type US Killed US Wounded Israeli Killed Official Figures 6 18 11+ My Mathematical Estimate 45โ85 150โ250 150โ250 Iranian Claims ~221 ~650 (Unclear)
โ ๏ธ The Statistical Anomaly
My estimate assumes that the $2 billion in destroyed equipment correlates with a higher human cost than currently admitted. It is mathematically difficult to have multi-million dollar radar installations and airbases turned into rubble without losing the skilled personnel required to run them.
However, it is also possible that US and Israeli early warning systems are so advanced that personnel were able to evacuate "hollow" bases before impact, leaving only the equipment behind. My estimate splits the difference between these two possibilities.
๐ฎ๐ทโ๐บ๐ธ๐ฎ๐ฑโ The United States and Israel have discussed sending special forces into Iran to secure its stockpile of highly enriched uranium at a later stage of the war, according to four sources familiar with the discussions โ Axios.
โ๏ธ@TheSimurgh313
https://t.me/TheSimurgh313/63247
They don't know where the nuclear material is. This is a massive bluff.
What later stage of the war, the war keeps getting worse for them, Also Iran said they are ready for the US to come in ... like ... this feels like Iran has set a Trap, said "trap here please spring the trap" and the US and Israel are just like "what if we step on the trap they want us to spring"
๐ฎ๐ท๐ฐ๐ผ๐บ๐ธ| WATCH: American army soldier filmed moment when an Iranian Shahed-136 hit a radome tower at a US military base in Ali Al Salem AirBase in Kuwait.
This confirms that American soldiers are still present inside the bases in large numbers and that the US casualty number is higher.
@FotrosResistancee
๐น๐ท๐ฎ๐ถ๐ฎ๐ทโ๐บ๐ธ โ Kaka Hama, leader of the Kurdistan Socialist Party:
I ask Kurdish parties and sides not to be deceived by America's words, because America has never stood by the Kurds throughout history!
โ๏ธ@TheSimurgh313
The Kurds are finally fucking figuring it out!?!? Are we gonna start hearing europeans talk about righting the wrongs of colonialism next?
๐ด IRGC spokesperson: The missiles used so far in operations mostly belong to the first and second generations, and in the next stages, a new style of attacks using more advanced and less frequently used long-range missiles will be implemented.
๐ด Drone attack on the Shaybah oil field in Saudi Arabia
๐นNews sources report a drone strike on the Shaybah oil field in Saudi Arabia and a fire at the site.
Analysis:
Anyone saying that this is the start of WW3 is full of shit. They are way overestimating the west's military potential. There will not be more fronts opened up in other continents because they lack the hardware to do so. This is not 1/2 or 1/3 of some other fraction of america's operational navy and air force. If america could have deployed more to the gulf they would have. The rest of their "deployable" forces are theoretical. 2 planes at 80% ready don't equal one plane. They say they have 11 aircraft carriers but only 1 showed up, one of them is full of shit in the Mediterranean and another is supposedly on its way a week late.
The assets used in Iran will have to be with drawn before a new front is opened. There won't be mass mobilizations or conscription like there were in the other world wars. (can you imagine how poorly that would go in western nations?) There will not be foreign troops deployed to liberate or defend allied nations. Russia and China will not get directly involved. (because they wont have to) Europe can't do much more than blow hot air. (except Greece and Turkey but they are more likely to go at each other then anyone else) American allies will only contribute a token amount to the war on Iran.
There may be many anti-imperialist wars close on the heels of this one but it won't be a world war.
SPECULATION: I also find it intersting how tepid the US is being with its especialy Naval Forces, It seems like any time the USS Abe Lincoln gets hit they pull it into a full retreat, and this is not what I would expect if they had even one other Carrer who they think could replace it. You cannot effectively wage a war, if you are unwilling to have any of your peices in any danger at all. Iran is able to force the movements of the Carier by threatening to hit it, significantly limiting its use
I'm inclined to agree. Part of my thought process is just the extent to which the world economy is interconnected. Already, just from how important Iran's positioning is in that, there could be major economic fallout as a result of sustained war in the region (like relating to oil). Opening up more fronts in a haphazard way would be over before it begins because of how it would wreck supply chains and the US, the one that is most likely to be aggressor in those fronts, is one of the more vulnerable to those supply chain issues because of how much it financialized its economy.
I don't think Trump and his admin actually wanted sustained war. I think they wanted smash and grab intimidation like Venezuela, but they picked the wrong country to fuck with this time and the empire is not what it once was to be able to go all out. Trump loves pretending like he's a peacemaker and prides himself on being a dealmaker as well (his "art of the deal" crap). Being the source of another world war is the opposite of that.
But the US admin is also in deep by now and too prideful to cower, so of course they're going to beat the drums about how ready they are to war and how strong they are.
If the US does expand the war to another front it will be among the stupidest things they have done.
Desperation leads to stupid actions!
๐ฎ๐ทโ๐ฐ๐ผ๐บ๐ธโ NYPD announced the death of Officer Sorffly Davius, a Major in the U.S. Armyโs 42nd Infantry Division under the New York National Guard.
๏ผDavius passed away Friday as a result of a โmedical episodeโ while deployed to Kuwait in support of Operation Epic Fury according to the reports.
โ๏ธ@TheSimurgh313
https://t.me/TheSimurgh313/63226
๐ฎ๐ทโ๐ฐ๐ผ๐บ๐ธโ NYPD announced the death of Officer Sorffly Davius, a Major in the U.S. Armyโs 42nd Infantry Division under the New York National Guard.
๏ผDavius passed away Friday as a result of a โmedical episodeโ while deployed to Kuwait in support of Operation Epic Fury according to the reports.
Source -> https://t.me/TheSimurgh313/63226
Sources in the USA backing this up -> https://pix11.com/news/local-news/nypd-officer-dies-in-kuwait-supporting-operation-epic-fury/
Archive in case the US purges the article -> https://archive.ph/xdBmO
Another Yankee down
We are going to see some bizarre bullshit to hide the dead yankees:
Forensics: This soldier died and it was dismembered by the bomb.
CENTCOM: โUS Marine dies of fOoD PoiSoNIng in Kuwait airbase. What a fool!โ
โญ Spokesperson of the IRGC: The armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran have the capability to continue at least a 6-month intense war with the current pace of operations.
Source -> https://t.me/sarbazane_g/122226
For some reason 6-month feels significatly shorter than I would have expected.
I think "with the current pace of operations" is the important part. They could probably prolong it a lot more by pacing themselves more, but this is, I would guess, meant to signal how prepared they are to treat this like a marathon in the face of belligerence from the empire.
Hopefully, we could see the collapse of the West within that time.
It does say at least, so perhaps it's an extremely conservative estimate.
I really hope so
๐ณ๐ด๐บ๐ธ โ A powerful blast was heard in the area of the U.S. Embassy in Oslo, followed by smoke rising, VG reports.
โ๏ธ@TheSimurgh313
https://t.me/TheSimurgh313/63216
๐ณ๐ด๐บ๐ธ โ Situation around the US Embassy in Norway after a reported explosion.
โ๏ธ@TheSimurgh313
Nice start
๐บ๐ธ๐ฎ๐ฑโ๏ธ๐ฎ๐ท On the topic of attacks on freshwater supply:
Today Iranian FM Araghchi said that the Epstein Coalition attacked the freshwater desalination plant on Qeshm and warned that the criminal move could have โgrave consequences.โ
Water infrastructure is an extremely sensitive target in the region. Israel receives roughly 75โ86% of its potable water from desalination and aims to reach about 90% of total supply. Five major Mediterranean plants produce around 600โ700 million cubic meters per year.
The Gulf states are even more dependent. Saudi Arabia gets about 70% of its drinking water from desalination, producing roughly 5 billion cubic meters annually. In the UAE, desalination provides about 42% of total water supply and more than 90% of potable water. Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain rely on desalination for roughly 70โ90% of their water.
Iran is in a very different position. The country produces roughly 120 million cubic meters of desalinated water annually out of total water use near 100 billion cubic meters, meaning well under 1% nationally. Desalination is concentrated mainly along the southern coast, especially in Hormozgan province, while around 90% of Iranโs water consumption is tied to agriculture.
In other words, Iran has limited dependence on desalination. Israel and the Gulf states do not.
This could get really ugly.
๐ด @DDGeopolitics
Please Iran, blow their desalination plants to kingdom come. I've seen certain Israeli bots making fun of Iran for its previous water shortage issues. We'll see who has water shortage issues once every one of Israel's desalination plants is blown up.
Also something I don't see getting coverage, the Gulf States import most of their food. The Strait of Hormuz being closed means no oil going out, but also no food going in.
๐๐ฎ๐ทโ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐บ๐ธ โ IRGC:
The Iranian armed forces succeeded in paralyzing the defense and intelligence infrastructure of America and the Zionist entity in a highly precise and advanced operation.
Seven highly sophisticated radars, which formed the security umbrella in the region, were completely destroyed.
โ๏ธ@TheSimurgh313
๐ฎ๐ท๐ฎ๐ทโ๐บ๐ธ๐ฎ๐ฑ โ The targeting of fuel tanks and oil refineries in Iran is considered an act outside of military protocols and indicates an inability to achieve war objectives.
When Washington and Tel Aviv resort to this step, it confirms the Iranian narrative regarding the reality of the war.
This move may escalate the level of the war from the Iranian side, as the latter may respond with painful and impactful strikes, which more than one Iranian official has hinted at.
โ Journalist Khalil Nasrallah
โ๏ธ@TheSimurgh313
๐ฎ๐ท๐ง๐ญ๐บ๐ธ Iranian missiles have hit an asset inside a US base in Bahrain.
Column of black smoke is now rising from the site indicating something definitely was hit.
@FotrosResistancee
๐ฑ๐ง Lebanese journalist reveals what the Nabi Cheit operation was about:
Israel launched a large-scale helicopter assault into southern Lebanon to retrieve the body of Ron Arad, the Israeli pilot captured in 1986.
"They wore Lebanese Army uniforms to hide their actions. They came toward Nabi Cheit thinking they could retrieve his corpse."
Hezbollah and local residents engaged them. The firefight dragged on. Israel laid down a belt of fire and destroyed homes just to extract their forces.
"They did not get Ron Arad. The enemy is experiencing a major defeat."
๐ด @DDGeopolitics
๐ฎ๐ถ๐บ๐ธ๐ฎ๐ท| US base inside of Erbilโs airport was just struck with a drone
@FotrosResistancee
๐บ๐ธ๐ฎ๐ท| Trump takes responsibility for hitting Iranโs freshwater desalination plants
Trump when asked if US bombed an Iranian desalination plant:
โThey are among the most evil people ever on earth, they cut babies' heads off, they chop women in half, what they did, take a look at October 7th... if they're complaining about a desalination plant, we complain about the fact that they shouldn't be chopping babies' heads off, okay?"
@FotrosResistancee
๐คก๐คก๐คก๐คก๐คก
Says the child rapist and baby eater in chief
Israeli i24 journalist:
โPay attention to the number of interceptors that were launched just from the Kiryat Shmona areaโฆ
Today, Hezbollah launched the highest number of rockets since the start of the war. Itโs hitting our IDF forces at military outposts, and on the other hand, our responses, especially today, are limited.โ
@FotrosResistancee
๐ฎ๐ฑ๐บ๐ธโ๐ฎ๐ท โ New York Times, citing Pentagon officials to Congress:
The first week of the war cost approximately $6 billion.
โ๏ธ@TheSimurgh313
Teenagers in America are watching the propaganda Tik Toks where the White House and Pentagon post Spongebob memes to make the bombing seem funny. A hybrid war where they strike the "enemy" with one hand and give memes to the kiddies with the other hand.
๐ฎ๐ทโ๐บ๐ธ โ The cost of replacing American ammunition in the first 100 hours of the war on Iran reached approximately $3.9 billion in operations. โ The Atlantic
โ๏ธ@TheSimurgh313
โโ๏ธ๐ฎ๐ท/๐ฎ๐ถ/๐บ๐ธ NEW: An Iranian drone strike hit a hotel suspected of housing American soldiers in Sulaymaniyah, Iraq
https://t.me/FotrosResistancee/19446
"I am sorry but the Yankee hunt will continue." โ Iran.
๐ฑ๐งโ๐ฎ๐ฑ โ Military analyst for Hebrew Channel 15, Yossi Yehoshua:
The firing on border settlements, along with attacks on IDF forces in the area using anti-tank missiles and mortars, shows that Hezbollah is very close to the border fenceโmuch more than the IDF would like.
โ๏ธ@TheSimurgh313
Folks, it's starting to look like Hezbollah will break Israel's back before Isran. The only obstacle is the Lebanese government.
https://bsky.app/profile/antizionistjew.bsky.social/post/3mginukrzhc25