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The numbers:
- Poilievre, CPC 13.7%
- Lewis, NDP 42.6%
- Carney, Liberal 39.5%
- May, Green 2.3%
- Another Cand. 1.9%
Source: https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/post/can-avi-lewis-begin-an-ndp-comeback-in-beaches-east-york
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this post was submitted on 18 Mar 2026
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In the last election the cons got 23.5% in this riding. In this poll they got 13.7%. How's that them winning? Unless you believe that only Lewis would be this popular and this lead doesn't translate in any NDP gains anywhere else. That remains to be seen but in my opinion Lewis beating this very popular PM without even being elected leader and without any general campaigning is a broader sign I think.
He's just a "By voting 3rd party your wasting your vote" kinda guy.
No I'm a realist. Every MP seat that goes down from the Liberals makes the conservatives the more likely to gain the balance of power. It's simple mathematics bud. I'm not an anything guy. I just don't want the conservatives getting power, because I'm tired of the trash state of the world we find ourselves in.
In any other time, I'd be more for having the NDP gain some power. Now is not that time. They aren't even an official party right now. What sort of illusion brings them to the forefront here, without handing the conservatives the reigns? Come to the realization that the NDP is probably 10+ years from coming close to a conversation again. I mean take that time and build something wonderful, I'm all for that. Just don't be trying to fuck up this delicate balance of power we have right now.
For someone whos proporting to not shit talk third parties I suggest you proofread your comments. I can think of several instances where a party completely shit the bed and then went on to form a government. Kim Campbell springs to mind. All we need is a smart and capable leader of the NDP and for Carney to have some financial scandal or put troops in Iran. Canadian politics is far more interesting than your binary win/lose "realism".
Kim Campbell took over leadership for the sitting government after the prime minister stepped down. She had government for like what, a hundred-some odd days? Then got completely owned in the election that followed. I think it was the worst defeat for a sitting government if I remember correctly, something like that.
The NDP has also never formed government at the federal level. So I'm really confused with where you are going with this...
I maybe need to proofread. But I also think you need to open a history book.
I'm sure you're aware that splitting the left is often seen as a win for the right, and reasonably so given FPTP and the political aversion in this country to what should be (and are in other parliamentary democracies) acceptable democratic political maneuvering, such as forming coalitions and crossing the floor unimpeded.
You're implying that the Liberals are left-wing
Omg face palm
That was a jet plane straight over your head, wasn't it?!
Aware for sure, I have voted strategically in more than one election. I'm just surprised at seeing Lewis beating Carney as vote splitting. Sure if the Lewis : Carney : PP numbers were 30 : 35 : 35, then I would talk about vote splitting.
You pretty clearly aren't aware. An NDP win here achieves literally nothing, and is actually a conservative win (a big one).
Maybe. I'm confused by what you're saying. If perhaps you elaborate on why you believe this, I might be less confused.
E: Nevermind, I read your other comment. Not confused anymore. Thanks!
I mean this whole exercise is quite dumb. No political party other than the leader of the NDP is going to run their leaders in what's probably the most extreme left wing riding in the country.