47
The numbers:
- Poilievre, CPC 13.7%
- Lewis, NDP 42.6%
- Carney, Liberal 39.5%
- May, Green 2.3%
- Another Cand. 1.9%
Source: https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/post/can-avi-lewis-begin-an-ndp-comeback-in-beaches-east-york
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this post was submitted on 18 Mar 2026
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In the last election the cons got 23.5% in this riding. In this poll they got 13.7%. How's that them winning? Unless you believe that only Lewis would be this popular and this lead doesn't translate in any NDP gains anywhere else. That remains to be seen but in my opinion Lewis beating this very popular PM without even being elected leader and without any general campaigning is a broader sign I think.
He's just a "By voting 3rd party your wasting your vote" kinda guy.
I'm sure you're aware that splitting the left is often seen as a win for the right, and reasonably so given FPTP and the political aversion in this country to what should be (and are in other parliamentary democracies) acceptable democratic political maneuvering, such as forming coalitions and crossing the floor unimpeded.
You're implying that the Liberals are left-wing
Aware for sure, I have voted strategically in more than one election. I'm just surprised at seeing Lewis beating Carney as vote splitting. Sure if the Lewis : Carney : PP numbers were 30 : 35 : 35, then I would talk about vote splitting.