Right this goes to attrition.

Can this prevent the collapse of the government and a US occupation? Maybe, if it doesn't though it will cause endless insurgency even if the US props up a friendly government.

Then we just get Afghanistan all over again.

The real question is can these autonomous cells continue operating their regions independently and for how long. Maintaining governance and a prolonged guerilla campaign aren't the same.

And you know I hope they do repel the US, but I feel like it's crazy to dismiss it as impossible