Mere hours before Trump's 8pm Tuesday deadline yesterday, Pakistan's government contacted Iran with a US-written proposal for a two-week ceasefire, explicitly stated to also include Lebanon, during which they would negotiate a permanent end to the war on the basis of Iran's 10 Points. Among other things, these points include 1) maintaining strict control (joint with Oman) over Hormuz, complete with a toll; 2) the end of sanctions on Iran; 3) keeping their enriched uranium; 4) a withdrawal of US forces from the Middle East [stated by the Supreme Leadership Council but not in the 10 Points, so who knows], and 5) some plausible guarantee that Iran would never be attacked again. I've heard rumors that China may have prodded Iran to accept these terms.
In theory, these are relatively confident and maximalist demands. In practice, Iran has already achieved military and economic control over Hormuz and the withdrawal of many US troops and bases from the region, so at least a few of Iran's demands are, to a greater or lesser extent, already achieved, and with little hope for an increasingly exhausted US to undo these achievements short of nukes.
A couple hours after the ceasefire, the Zionist entity began a wave of airstrikes in Lebanon, killing hundreds of civilians, as well as flying drones into Iranian airspace. This was a strange move to make even if you assume - very sensibly - that the US is completely agreement non-capable: why not agree to the ceasefire and simply pretend to negotiate for two weeks while regrouping/repairing what assets you can and then start hitting Iran again?
One theory is that the Zionists are testing to what degree Iran is actually willing to have solidarity with Lebanon and Hezbollah. While the Resistance has been relatively united since October 7th, the formation of separate peaces instead of negotiating terms as a united front has been a major exploitable weakness. Alternatively, it's been proposed that the US didn't even consider using the ceasefire to regroup and deceive Iran, and that Trump merely wanted a way to chicken out of his threat on Iran's electrical grid - the fact that US officials have since stated that Iran's 10 Points were not the same ones they agreed to is a point supporting this, I suppose. If the conflict resumes and Trump does not deliver another 48 hour deadline (and/or makes it something silly like a month from now) then this could be the explanation.
From Iran, I am getting the sense that a lot is happening behind the scenes. Statements from top officials like Araghchi have stated quite plainly that there will be no ceasefire and no negotiations unless the Zionists stop attacking Lebanon, but as of ~24 hours after the ceasefire began, there has been no significant military response from Iran yet. There have apparently been phone calls between Araghchi and numerous regional officials, but it is unknown to what end. All the while, the global economic situation continues to deteriorate. Over the next week or two, the last tankers that left Hormuz before it closed will arrive at their destinations. If the missile exchanges begin once more, then the West, much like most of the rest of the world, will be experiencing all sorts of fuel, energy, food, and product shortages while trying to justify why they broke the ceasefire to kill more Lebanese civilians.
Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
I saw that comment. That's not "blaming the war on Russia," that's comparing Russian methods to US methods.
Russia did conduct a surprise attack following an ambiguous buildup. And, while this is the first I've heard of the Kiev special forces operation, if they attempted to detain or kill political figures that would also be a kind of decapitation strike. There's a methodological resemblance to the US blitzkrieg on Iran.
Comparing tactics is not the same thing as both-sidesing imperialism. For that matter, hexbear is anti-imperialist, not, strictly speaking, pro-Russia. AFAIK the neoliberal state of Russia is anti-imperialist as a matter of self-preservation, not on principle, although principle vs practice can get blurry.
Maybe you think Marmite should not refer to Russia in a flippant way, but this is absolutely not "fanatical support for Ukraine" -- Marmite even refers to the operation as denazification, right there at the end. The comment has 40 upvotes, it's within the bounds of acceptable speech on hexbear.
That doesn't mean it's beyond criticism. Marmite got pushback from a user who pointed out that, in both conflicts, it was the US side that sabotaged negotiations, and it was only afterward that Russia invaded. Take, counter-take, both upvoted. Normal exchange on hexbear.
First of all, no. There were plenty of responses including my own in that very thread if you would like to get a better understanding. Russian tactics are not the same as US tactics.
First of all, There was absolutely nothing "surprising" about this conflict. Again, i point this out to marmite. Russias actions were fully anticipated and encouraged by NATO.
Second, it was not a "decapitation strike". Nor did it precede the start of hostilities. As was the case with Iran. Given you weren't even aware of the Kiev operation, your own understanding seems to be as thin as marmite on this matter. And given I've already gone over this I'm not going to again. I do enjoy discussing this, have done a lot of reading and listening and have even written about it myself. So, if you would like a better understanding and more context i would be more than willing to talk elsewhere about it.
Marmite didn't even "both sides" anything. As I said, the role the west played in the origins of the conflict went completely unmentioned. Ignoring the dominant aspect of the contradiciton in question. In other words, repeating the imperial line that Russia acted unprovoked and in a vacuum. A sentiment you are now echoing. Tactics weren't even a part of the conversation. I agreed with marmite on the matter of political double speak, which you seem to be confusing with "tactics". but that wasn't the core issue being discussed.
You yourself seem like you could use a bit more material understanding of the contradictions currently at play in Ukraine.
The conversation in regards to Pakistan was similarly sympathetic to imperialism. Omitting pakistans history with the CIA and the Taliban entirely and focusing on a single recent event.
It's you who is coming off as incredibly belligerent rather than understanding when seeing the incorrect views of a potential comrade being corrected. There was no argument with marmite as I said. Rather, the incorrect line he had taken was pointed out, by more comrades than just myself. A core part of our system is criticism and self-criticism.
I'll respond to these points briefly but it's kinda beside the point. I'm defending Marmite not because I think all their takes are correct and I want to die on that hill, but because I think you misrepresented their views and by extension their character. Like I said before, I think it sets a toxic precedent to badmouth a user in good standing on this forum, and I want to set the opposing precedent that we also stick up for each other here, because these things ripple out and affect the community. Like anyone, Marmite has surely posted their share of hot takes and gaffes. Hexbear is also not a hivemind, we have bounds but people disagree within those bounds. I agree that "a core part of our system is criticism and self-criticism," but it needs to be respectful. That's not to call you a shitty person -- people get on each others' nerves sometimes, it happens.
I'm not trying to be hostile, but to be honest this shit makes me tense and I do not enjoy it. I'm trying to thread this needle where I defend Marmite, without putting you on the defensive so much that you have to protect yourself, and without escalating or getting too defensive myself, but also while protecting myself and not becoming a target alongside Marmite. Honestly the margins feel pretty fucking thin here. And it's not necessarily your fault or mine or anyone's, it's just the nature of the beast. Shit takes on a life of its own. This is why the only solution, the only way to keep a forum healthy, is a culture of patience, respect, charitable interpretation, and deescalation. That goes for me, you and Marmite.
Responding to the points:
There was also "nothing surprising" about the US bombing Iran. Visible buildup and motive alongside public denial. What adjective should be used? The intent was surprise / ambiguity
The difference between then and now is that now everyone expects this kind of thing. In 2022 it was harder to believe that Russia would invade. It didn't feel like WW3 yet. Now anything is possible.
I think because that literally goes without saying, in a hexbear news megathread, years into the conflict and over a decade after the color revolution in 2014. Especially for someone as chronically in-the-mega as Marmite. Marmite knows, everyone knows. This is one of the strongest lines of consensus on the site. Relentless pressure from NATO eventually provoked Russia into open conflict, because NATO nukes down the road from Moscow is a red line and has been since the breakup of the USSR.
I mean tactics in the colloquial sense, not the "tactical / operational / strategic" sense. Tactics as in "actions to achieve contested objectives." Doublespeak included.
To paraphrase, Marmite's take was "Russia criticized the US for doing something they also did." Whether you agree with the comparison is another matter, but that is what Marmite actually said. Not "Putler invaded for no reason and we need to support the heckin' Ukrainian resistance." No one on this website is saying that. If we conducted a poll right now, and that was one of the options, people would select it as a joke because that's how un-hexbear that take is.
Admittedly, four years ago I spent less time in the megathreads than I do now. I knew Russia made a push for Kiev, but didn't know about the attempted special forces raid, or maybe heard some early rumors about it and then never followed up. IIRC, at the time, a common early take in the mega was that the push for Kiev was a feint. And yeah, of course there's always more to learn about the dimensions of any conflict. But for the most part, I get the picture already.
Anyway, apologies for the long thread. No hard feelings, I hope. Have a good one.