My post here laid it out: the US needed a pretext to declare force majeure on COMEX silver deliveries; attacking Iran over a weekend (Friday OPEX) provided that cover. The silver physical delivery pressure was screaming for a reset, and a war in the Strait of Hormuz gave them the perfect external shock to suspend contract fulfillment without admitting the dollar is weak or the exchange is insolvent.

And it is still NOT doing well.

Now look at what is happening with oil.

The April 21 options expiration is the key. May 2026 WTI crude futures and options expire on April 21, 2026. The US‑Iran ceasefire is also set to expire on April 21 (OPEX is on the 21st EST, ceasefire is on the 22nd IRST). That is not a coincidence. The US has been trying to tank the futures market by selling contracts into the rollover period; they want to pin prices lower ahead of the May contract expiry. But Iran is letting them do it.

Iran is waiting for the rollover to fuck up the US plan. The US (most likely the treasury itself or other proxies) have placed massive bearish bets. The idea is to drive oil down once the Strait of Hormuz "reopens." But Iran controls the strait; they can flip the switch at any moment. By waiting until after the rollover, Iran forces the US to hold short positions into a delivery period where physical barrels are not available. When Iran then "closes" the strait again (or kinetic warfare escalates when Israel breaks the ceasefire), the short squeeze will be brutal. The US will be forced to buy back contracts at any price, and the paper game unravels.

Iran is posting bullish statements before market hours for a reason (some have been accusing the Iranian government and the IRGC as being at odds with one another, this is not the case). They want to lure the US into selling more cheap contracts, letting the shorts pile up. Every time Iran says "the strait is open" or "negotiations are progressing", the US adds to its short position. Then, when the rollover is locked in, Iran reverses course. That is exactly what happened on April 17: Iran announced the strait was open, oil tumbled 9%, and then the next day Iran "closed" it again after the US continued its blockade. The US got trapped.

Kinetic warfare cannot be shrugged off. The 1970s oil shock took 7 years to recover from; the physical damage to infrastructure, shipping lanes, and refining capacity does not just disappear. Pricing models will start pricing in longer periods of low oil supply, and that is when the real pain begins. Europe/etc have months of supply, but if they know the strait will be closed for 6 months, 12 months, 18 months? Rations will start immediately so they don't run out in ~June and the price of oil be >$200. The strait could go back to 100% fully normal capacity TOMORROW, and we would not avoid this supply shock. It will take (at minimum) MONTHS to "restart" the strait when all is said and done.

• AI is like the 00 crash (Massive overvaluations into massive leverage)
• Oil is like the 70s crash
• PC/PE Stress (Private Credit / Private Equity) is like the 08 crash
• Iran War is like the 2021 crash (ignore it and it'll go away? Right?...)

But AI is much worse than the dotcom crash (>3x the leverage than in 99), this supply shock makes the 70s look like a game (roughly 3x more of a supply disruption), PC/PE makes 08 look like childs' play, and this insane 12 day run during a war makes covid look like a joke.

This is genuinely THE largest bull trap for the markets the world has ever seen. If/when the United States fails to fuck with the futures markets, first the markets, and then the actual economy are going to crumble.