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this post was submitted on 05 Sep 2023
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If anyone’s interested as to why this is, it’s because interest rates are proportional to risk.
Under normal circumstances, investors of bonds are exposed to higher risk when they buy a longer maturity bond. So they will get a higher interest rate. IE: 10 yr bonds will have a higher yield than 2 yr bonds.
However, if in the short term, there is expected to be significant risk, then the yield for 2 yr bonds will increase faster than the 10 yr yield. When the yield for 2 yr is higher than 10 yr, let’s say, then that’s called a yield inversion, and that’s indicative that some shit’s gonna go down soon.
Other indicators are to look at stock volatility, and comparing 9 day vol to 20 day vol.
What happens if both have high yields? Would that be possible or would that just mean imminent terminal collapse?
It’s possible. Since all bonds yields are also proportional to inflation, it just means inflation is high. That in itself can be a good thing for the economy (demand driven inflation) or a bad thing (supply driven inflation). The curve inversion compares bonds against each other so it negates the effects of inflation.
But keep in mind that what’s good for the economy may not necessarily be good for the people. Demand driven inflation also means a higher rate of capital accumulation, and a decrease in the living standards of the working class. It’s also something that the federal reserve implicitly said they were trying to do for years. (Fuck J pow)
The economic situation we want is actually supply driven deflation, where prices become cheaper because goods cost less to produce. This is the situation where it’s the most detrimental to the investor class. That has its own problems such as debt being harder to pay off. But that can be fixed with negative interest rates.