I think the more unsettling answer is that a lot of these incidents aren't directly linked to O9A/764/Terrorgram etc, but rather now things have progressed to a point where a lot of far-right spaces online are downstream from those internet "cultures", for lack of a better phase. In other words, the average fascist on X, The Everything App™, is mainlining agitation to do lone wolf mass terrorism straight into their brain without ever directly interacting with those groups. I have an unhealthy habit of occasionally lurking through nazi twitter profiles and those freaks fedpost constantly.

somewhere around 82% is there a polymarket for it?

Given the writing/drawing on the guns, 100%. It doesn’t matter if they were directly in contact w any o9a folks; this incident is up the the gills in their ideology