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Yeah he tries to do that but dramatically fails because he makes it unfalsifiable while also claiming complete certainty on that basis.
"What would it take to convince me that a computer program is actually conscious and using language the way that people use language? Let me offer an analogy. If tomorrow someone showed me a video of an astronaut in a spaceship orbiting Alpha Centauri, a star that’s 4.3 light-years from Earth, what would I have to see in that video to convince me that it was real? My answer to that is, there is nothing in the video itself that would convince me. No matter how high the video resolution is or how realistic the scenery is, I would feel confident in saying that the video is fake. I won’t pay attention to any video of an astronaut orbiting Alpha Centauri unless I have previously seen good evidence that astronauts have landed on Mars, that astronauts have reached the moons of Jupiter, that astronauts have reached the moons of Saturn, and that astronauts have crossed the orbit of Pluto. Before anyone can credibly claim that they’ve solved an extraordinarily difficult engineering problem, I need to be confident that they have previously solved the many much simpler problems that precede the difficult problem."
he basically just straight up says there's no reason to believe it is and here's how you'd prove it: I'll just never believe it is no matter what
then this:
"So what context would cause me to seriously consider the possibility that engineers created a computer program that is conscious and an intentional user of language? Let me outline one potential sequence of steps. The first requirement is that the computer program has a body (either physical or virtual) and sense organs; there are many reasons for this, but for the purposes of this discussion, the most relevant one is the fact that without a body, a computer program could have no desires or emotions, and I believe desires and emotions are necessary for consciousness. Then I’d want to see an embodied agent that could navigate its environment in order to survive as well as, say, a lizard can (and as a point of comparison, certain iguanas can live for decades in the wild). Next, I would want to see an embodied agent with the same capacity to deal with novel situations as a mouse. After that, I’d want to see agents whose social dynamics are as complex as those of wolves, and then agents with the toolmaking abilities of chimpanzees. At that point, I would want to see people successfully teaching such embodied agents how to communicate their desires, perhaps by using a button board or some other nonlinguistic modality, the way that people have taught chimpanzees and domesticated dogs. The agents’ communication abilities would have to withstand all the scrutiny that animal-communication researchers have had to defend their work against. If engineers build an embodied agent that meets these criteria, they will have accomplished something incredible, but it leaves us near the orbit of Pluto, metaphorically speaking; we would still be light-years away from building an entity capable of learning how to express its thoughts in complete grammatical sentences."
why would anyone ever do any of that and if it's the only way you can be sure then the term is meaningless in the first place.
What he's saying is that it seems rather implausible that we'd skip all the stages of development and jump straight to consciousness which is a reasonable position to hold. His argument is that creating a simulacrum of consciousness is much easier just like faking a moon landing is much easier than actually going to the moon. Nowhere is he saying he would just never believe it no matter what either. He rather says that he hasn't seen any convincing evidence to suggest that LLMs are a way to create consciousness rather than simply write text in a way that makes humans project consciousness onto the system.
Also, not sure what you're saying with your second quote. Why wouldn't anyone ever do the steps of actually creating a proper feedback loop which would have some basis for consciousness?
"What he's saying is that it seems rather implausible that we'd skip all the stages of development and jump straight to consciousness which is a reasonable position to hold."
i don't see any reason to think that you need to go through those particular steps, they seem unneccessary and egregious. The author doesn't know what consciousness is at all so they can only assume one way to do it. If that's their point it could've been said in one sentence and adds nothing to the discussion.
"Nowhere is he saying he would just never believe it no matter what either." he didn't give a reasonable way to falsify the claim which ultimately amounts to saying "nah I just don't think so"
"Why wouldn't anyone ever do the steps of actually creating a proper feedback loop which would have some basis for consciousness?" They would, what you said is vastly more reasonable than what the author wrote, but even then, you wouldn't know if you ended up with something conscious or not. None of the steps listed actually require subjective experience.
basically the author added nothing to the conversation, they went "i don't really know what consciousness is but whatever it is llm's aren't it because they're different from me and I'm the only thing I know is conscious."
and in fact that's an adequate summary of the article, if they wanted to make a good one they'd first need to define consciousness and continue using that definition, since they didn't define it they're free to say whatever they want and it's essentially meaningless
While we don't have a definitive model for what consciousness is, there are definitely compelling arguments on the subject, and the book I linked earlier from the author clearly demonstrates that he has thought about this subject more than you have.
Seems to me that the only one who's not adding anything to the conversation here is you actually. You've provided no argument of your own and you've failed to engage with anything I said. You just keep repeating how Ted Chiang hasn't proven his case definitively, which he has not, but you've provided zero counter agument of your own.