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this post was submitted on 07 Sep 2023
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Asklemmy
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This is all conjecture, but:
So overall I think that the fediverse will get huge, but none of the underlying platforms will. The main strength will be how they connect to each other.
The kind of people who obtain information and discourse from reddit would never wish to obtain it from discord. They're not even remotely similar in approach.
I still use both and they don't come close to serving the same purpose
I've seen at least one sub (r/conlangs) partially migrating to Discord. They might not like it, and I do agree that the approach is not even remotely similar, but Discord is still able to somewhat fill - poorly - the same role as Reddit, so with Reddit going kaboom Discord will partially absorb redditfugees.
Discord is also in a position to absorb some twitterfugees.
If discord adds more persistent web space that's searchable by web crawler, I could Discord see become this replacement. Right now it's too gated behind individual communities.
Fully agree.
I hope that it doesn't though. We don't need yet another centralised platform that can and will go rogue, and is already showing signs that it wants to go rogue.
Makes me wonder how the inevitable advertising bubble bursting will impact a lot of these platforms, too. A lot of these exist only for advertising.
I'm gonna guess that you're on the money for Facebook, though they will break Marketplace into its own service and probably maintain Messenger as well until eventually merging it into WhatsApp.
Reddit is going to get bought up. If they go public, they'll be undervalued and cheap to buy given all of the controversy and instability among the userbase. If they stay private, they'll continue enshittifying until costs exceed income and they have no choice but to seek a buyer. The thing about Reddit is that they are valuable and they know it, but they don't have the ability to capitalize on that value with their business model. They are valuable as a training model for AI, and eventually some big company (Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon maybe) will buy Reddit for cheap just to use their content as a training model. And potentially de-enshittify the site in the process when the revenue model becomes the content itself instead of the eyeballs consuming it. But I am assuming it will implode eventually once they have everything they need. The company that buys it will spin it off into some AI-driven platform that feeds you the content it knows you want to see and Reddit itself will be slowly phased out.
Agree YouTube will stay, but Google's going to start forcing YouTube Premium more. If ad money dries up, I almost guarantee that they'll impose restrictions or incentives (maybe a combination?) on monetizations for creators. If you make your videos publicly available, you get a miniscule cut and you're capped at 1080p@30, 10 minutes or less or something like that. But if you make your videos YT Premium exclusive, you get a bigger piece of the pie and better quality/support. Google will up the price of Premium again but break out Music and Ad-Free into separate subscriptions that each cost marginally less than the two together cost today.