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China’s BRI now faces a credible Indian challenger
(m.timesofindia.com)
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this post was submitted on 13 Sep 2023
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What's the traffic on those rail lines?
For Russia to India, it's a matter of national security considering the other shortest routes pass through either Gibraltar of Istanbul... Both NATO.
Wikipedia says that 60 trains a week run between Shenzhen and Duisborg, citing a German source. The Russia-Iran-India route seems to have opened only last year.
Shortest sea route would be Rostov - Istanbul - Suez - India. Turkiye is a NATO member but has not blocked Russian civilian shipping.
That's... higher than I expected, actually. However, even at 60 trains a week and 240 containers a train, that's barely the throughput of a two container ships (20000-24000 TEU each, 3 week transit + random customs bullshit).
Right, so goods would fall on a spectrum from bulky and cheap (grain, cloth) to light but expensive (gold, jewels, high-end electronics). The first would go by ship, the second by train (or flight). The article said that Spain exports olive oil to China, and China exports electronics and automobiles to Europe.
Sure, that's a fair point. But that's not what IMEC is building. It makes this assumption that this 3-legged transit (ship from India-UAE, train from UAE-Israel, ship from Israel-Greece) would somehow be faster and/or cheaper than just going through the Suez. And, like, sure, let's accept that premise. In what world does 5 days in a 30 day transit even matter? This isn't cutting transit times down significantly because of port time loading/unloading and random customs bullshit.
I'm not entirely convinced that IMEC is financially viable. It could be more of a political decision - the UAE and Israel have good relations with India, and might provide a backup if for some reason Egypt blocks Suez to Indian ships. Also our current government has a habit of making somewhat exaggerated claims to create an impression that they are doing things.
That's the thing, I really don't think IMEC makes sense. At railroad capacity of 30 trains per day/240 containers per train, that's about a third of a single container ship in throughput. The Suez canal can handle 50 ships each day easily.