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this post was submitted on 29 Sep 2023
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I don't really know what people are expecting to happen?
It's true that the housing market does not represent real value of the asset at all. You pay double or triple 'real' value, and it seems that OP is suggesting a market correction is due.
Whilst that may be true in some areas that are actively collapsing with major population drain due to crime, lack of work etc (I'm certainly not familiar with the USA or its cities) - overall the supply of houses is still vastly outstripped by the demand of people that would like to own one. The population continues to grow via immigration and births to prop up the never ending shell game of annual GDP growth.
Whilst there may be regional blips, unless there are massive social housing programs that flood the market with cheap, desirable dwellings then I'm not sure why anyone would expect the housing market to crash. Until the shell game and the table they play on is flipped and burned, the housing market will not crash. It's the most basic supply/demand equation out there.
I mean we had those same situations, and we still had the collapse of the housing market in 2008 in the US, because everyone defaulted on loans at once on overinflated houses, then houses shot back to proper value. Losing an estimated 25% value.
So it just feels like that might happen, because housing prices are soaring and interest rate is so high. So I mean, if it happened once in similar situation, it doesn't seem unreasonable to say it might happen again.
In what way did the housing market collapse? The only thing that changed was the availability of irresponsible loans to people that can't afford them. Tighter regulation of lending.
The effect on housing prices was a mere blip, and banks are back to their old tricks again. You're right about the same crisis repeating: there's more packages of bad debt that have been sold and re-sold as if they have any value, this will almost certainly come home to roost again but on a longer timeline it's not something that will 'fix' the global housing crisis because supply:demand has not changed in any meaningful way.
If you are a private investment company with wads of cash, you'll take advantage of the temporary instability and buy up massive amounts of private land and housing. Problem just gets worse in the long run because we keep propping up the system that rewards this behaviour.
One of the major things that is different is that loans are a lot different from what kicked off the '08 crash. We didn't see a flood of interest only, 5/1ARM or other exotic lending setups. Yes, there are some out there but they aren't as large of a slice of the market. Banks have to keep more capital than when WaMU crashed and we even saw some larger regional banks fail this year with only a rather minor impact outside of SV angel investor lending.
This isn't going to be like '08, There would need to be a major situation to cause house pricing to fall like a depression level downturn or industrial level of house construction destabilizes the market.
It seems like the build-to-rent market is growing too, so even if there is more supply being constructed you might not actually be able to buy them. That should be outlawed, imo.
We'll own nothing, and be happy?
Just to clarify: you want to outlaw rental of residential real estate?
No, I want to outlaw building subdivisions of single-family homes for rent.