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this post was submitted on 03 Oct 2023
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No, they are quite related. Take a closer look and you will see that the value of the land is some multiple of its income generating potential.
Over the past decade or so ~2% was were land generally landed. In other words, if a property could generate $1,000,000 in profit in a year, the land would be worth $50,000,000.
That's still largely the case, but I expect you will see that start to change as we keep moving forward. There is a lot of stickiness in real estate, but now that you can get 5% just by leaving your money in the bank, it's a tough pill to see only 2% from your land investments. These will eventually start to converge.
As long as we can produce more and more value from land, the equation from above will see appreciation happen. The last decade or two have been quite notable for changes in productivity and profitability, including the tech boom, and the US changing their agricultural programs which, in turn, made farming more profitable in Canada.
You can tax the land to death such that the activities on the land can no longer grow, and thus appreciation of the land will halt, but that also impacts the workers. Land is the foundation for all work activity. The land is what produces the revenue, from which the workers take a cut. You cannot treat them as if they are independent things.
The greater question is: How likely are we to see such a big change in how profitable businesses can be again any time soon? I expect that situation was a bit of an outlier, not something we can expect every single decade going forward. Historically, such shifts have been rare.
My home generates 0 revenue, and still has tremendous value. Even when it is being used commercially the value of that land varies dramatically based on what type of commercial activity is possible there. Farms and tree harvesting land can be purchased as low as a few thousand dollars an acre.
So no, they aren't the same thing at all.
If there's a business that sells hot dogs, and it makes more money off the land appreciation than the selling of the food, then it's not a hot dog business, it's a real estate business. If it undercuts it's competitors simply because it can charge less by outright owning the land it operates on and having paid less for that land because it bought it a while ago, that's anti-competitive.
Simply put, nobody should be making money on real estate appreciation. If you want to make a profit, make it selling hot dogs. Real estate appreciation adds nothing of value to the economy, preparing and selling hot dogs does.